Victory margin is target of BCS



Mike Tranghese, the commissioner of the Big East Conference and new coordinator of the Bowl Championship Series, has issued an ultimatum to the eight men who run the various computer ratings that help make up the BCS ratings:
Eliminate margin of victory from your formula or get out.
We're told of two, David Rothman and Herman Matthews, who have opted to take a walk.
According to Matthews, who compiles his ratings for the Scripps Howard News Service, Tranghese e-mailed each of the eight earlier this week from a conference in San Francisco, detailing an offer to remain part of the BCS poll, on the condition they do so "without the use of margin of victory as a component," according to a Scripps Howard story.
Rothman is not affiliated with a news organization. His is one of only four of the computer ratings that take into account margin of victory; so does Matthews, Jeff Sagarin of USA Today and Peter Wolfe of the Los Angeles Times.
Diminishing returns
All four have a diminishing returns principle; for instance, Wolfe has a "hard cap" of 21 points. That means, a victory by 50 points doesn't count for any more than a 21-point margin. The other four ratings that are used by the BCS -- Seattle Times, Richard Billingsley, Wes Colley and Kenneth Massey -- do not factor margin of victory.
The BCS, in its four years of existence, has been mired in controversy over which teams should be in the national championship game. It has produced four unbeaten national champions, and those four -- Tennessee, Florida State, Oklahoma and Miami (Fla.) -- undoubtedly have deserved to be in the game.
The controversy has arisen over the opponent for those juggernauts.
In 2000, Florida State, with an 11-1 record, was given the chance to play Oklahoma despite losing to Miami (10-1).
Last year, Nebraska, at 11-1, was put in the championship game against the Seminoles, despite losing to a Colorado (10-2) team that routed the 'Huskers by 32 points late in the regular season, and won the Big 12 championship. Then there was Oregon, which finished 11-1 and routed Colorado in the Fiesta Bowl.
Worst-case scenario
According to the Scripps Howard story, Matthews re-ran his 2001 ratings without using margin of victory, and it resulted in Tennessee falling from No. 2 to No. 3 despite a 28-point victory over Michigan in the Citrus Bowl. It also moved the Wolverines up two spots, from No. 20 to No. 18, despite the blowout loss.
There are so many questions that can be asked in this controversy -- it begins with whether there should even be a BCS. If one is in favor of the BCS, should computers have such an important role in rating the teams? Should more weight be given to the polls?
Or should the national champion be determined by a tournament? If so, how many teams should be invited -- eight or 16? Or more?
This much is for certain: The BCS will not go away soon. The respective BCS bowl committees wield a great deal of power with the terrific amount of revenue their games generate. Certainly, the television networks can garner astronomical rates for advertising when there is a controversy about the participating teams. The NCAA sure doesn't mind all the publicity.
A I-A tournament surely won't take place until the major conferences who currently control the BCS can break away from the mid-major conferences like the Mid-American and Conference USA, whose champions likely never will qualify for a BCS bowl. Once that division takes place, creating a I-A super division will further divide the haves from the have-nots.
XRob Todor is sports editor of The Vindicator. Write to him at todor@vindy.com.