OHIO POLITICS Report: Democrats have upper hand

The governor's spokesman says Ohio is a politically competitive state.
By DAVID SKOLNICK
VINDICATOR POLITICS WRITER
YOUNGSTOWN -- The White House's political director does not believe Republican candidates can win in the 6th and 17th Congressional District races and lists Gov. Bob Taft as vulnerable.
The private analysis conducted by Ken Mehlman of the 2002 election was obtained by Roll Call, a publication that covers Capitol Hill.
In the analysis, Mehlman said the only competitive congressional race in Ohio is for the open seat in the 3rd District in the Dayton area and no Democratically controlled seats in the state are vulnerable.
The analysis came as a surprise to the campaign of state Rep. Ann Womer Benjamin of Aurora, the Republican nominee for the 17th Congressional District race.
"I definitely think this is one of the most competitive races in the country and Ann is the right Republican for the district," said David All, her campaign manager.
"The message we get from the White House and the [National Republican Congressional Committee] is it's a top race for them."
An NRCC spokesman has told The Vindicator the 17th District race is among the 50 most competitive U.S. House races in the country.
The spokesman has also said the 6th District race is in the second tier, just below that top 50 and that there is an opportunity for it to move into that upper tier.
About 17th District
A Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokeswoman says the two congressional seats are safely in the hands of her party.
Womer Benjamin is facing Democrat Timothy J. Ryan of Niles and two independents, U.S. Rep. James A. Traficant Jr. of Poland and Warren Davis of Bay Village.
Republicans say the independent candidates are expected to attract mostly Democratic voters, making the seat winnable for Womer Benjamin.
Mehlman doesn't see it that way, nor does he view Michael Halleck, the Republican nominee for the 6th District seat, as a serious threat to U.S. Rep. Ted Strickland, a Lucasville Democrat.
The 17th District includes portions of Mahoning, Trumbull, Portage and Summit counties. The 6th District takes in 12 eastern Ohio counties, including all of Columbiana and a portion of Mahoning.
Mehlman lists Taft, who is being challenged by Democrat Tim Hagan, among six Republican governors up for re-election who Democrats can possibly beat. There are nine other Republican governors up for re-election who Mehlman believes Democrats have a strong chance of beating.
"This survey confirms what I've been seeing and feeling that Bob Taft's performance shows he should be fired and new leadership is needed," said Jerry Austin, a Hagan campaign spokesman.
"People, including national Republican leaders, are starting to believe that Tim Hagan can win."
Orest Holubec, Taft's campaign spokesman, said Ohio is a politically competitive state.
"We haven't taken anything for granted from the day our opponent announced [his candidacy] and that's why we continue to raise the money that we'll need to get the governor's message out," he said.
Roll Call states that a computer disk of Mehlman's analysis was found on a Washington, D.C., street corner near the White House by a Senate Democratic aide, who has passed it along to others.
Mehlman told the publication the analysis is old, even though he made the presentation June 4.
skolnick@vindy.com