Arrest in 'dirty' bomb shows threat is very real

Attacks with radiation bombs can be carried out with relative ease.
COMBINED DISPATCHES
It really isn't over -- and it's really deadly serious.
If nothing else, the administration's announcement that it has in custody a terror suspect who plotted to explode a radiological "dirty" bomb in the United States may show how Al-Qaida has adapted after having its primary organization crushed -- and that the terror group continues to look for creative ways to land a blow that would likely stun the nation.
Knowledge of suspect Abdullah al Muhajir's incarceration may have been one reason U.S. officials have been stressing the inevitability of new terror attempts.
On the other hand, the timing of the revelations about the alleged dirty-bomb plot may raise questions of possible political motivation, coming as they do so closely after the White House's proposal to establish a new Department of Homeland Security and intelligence lapses leading up to Sept. 11.
Still, the bottom line is that the arrest of a former Chicago street gang member who has reportedly been turned into an Al-Qaida operative could reveal the lengths to which Osama bin Laden's group will go to strike at U.S. targets, as well as the group's operational creativity.
"[Al-Qaida] has patience," said Ed Lyman, scientific director of the Nuclear Control Institute.
Al-Qaida connection
Muhajir, also known as Jose Padilla, was arrested May 8 as he flew from Pakistan into Chicago O'Hare International Airport. U.S. officials said that they have multiple independent sources that corroborate Muhajir's connection with Al-Qaida.
After serving prison time in the United States in the early 1990s, Muhajir traveled widely in Afghanistan and Pakistan during 2001, and he received training in the wiring and construction of explosive devices, and in radiological dispersion techniques.
Although the plot may have been aimed at the nation's capital, it had not progressed much past the planning stage, officials said Monday.
"He had indicated some knowledge of the Washington, D.C., area, but I want to emphasize again ... we stopped this in the initial planning stages," said Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz.
Attacks with radiological or "dirty" bombs probably would not cause large numbers of immediate casualties, but they increasingly worry U.S. officials because of the ease with which they could be carried out, and their ability to set off panic and inflict economic damage.
Even the less organized
Experts say even relatively unsophisticated terrorist groups probably would be able to build radiation-dispersing car bombs with conventional explosives and low-level radioactive waste from U.S. hospitals and industry.
If such a bomb were set off in downtown Washington, D.C., or New York, it probably would cause few if any immediate deaths. But as it raised the level of radioactivity, it could spark panic, overburdening the health care system and perhaps forcing the abandonment of many square blocks for decades, experts say.
"There's no question in my mind that terrorists could, fairly readily, find some radiological material that they may wish to use," said William C. Potter, a specialist at the Monterey Institute of International Studies, in Monterey, Calif. "It is easier than I previously believed. And with the knowledge, and the motivation of terrorists, that has me uneasy."
Nuclear device
It would be difficult for terrorists to buy or steal a small nuclear device from Russia, Pakistan or other nuclear-equipped countries, experts say.
But security is far more relaxed for radioactive materials such as cobalt, strontium and cesium that are used in medicine, in food irradiation and a host of industrial processes.
For this reason, most experts believe there is more risk of a dirty bomb attack than an attack with a "suitcase" nuclear bomb or an attack on a nuclear plant.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C., conducted a study in March of the effects of an attack with a 4,000-pound dirty bomb set off in a bus parked outside the Smithsonian Air and Space Museum on Washington's National Mall.
The study assumed that the terrorists would use Cesium 137, a material that is used widely in biomedicine. The substance emits beta and gamma radiation that can penetrate the skin and lead to increased rates of cancer.
The study said such a bomb would contaminate about 20 percent of downtown Washington, but would pose an increased rate of cancer or cataracts only in the blocks immediately around the blast site.
The report said the attack would cause many panicked residents to evacuate the area, and would quickly disable many local emergency response workers.
Containing such an attack can cost hundreds of thousands of dollars, and the number of people exposed can multiply quickly as people flee to the suburbs or outlying areas, spreading contamination, said Phil Anderson, a senior fellow at the center.
Long-term consequences of a dirty bomb attack include psychological effects on workers who might refuse to return to work, and to parents who refuse to return their children to school.
The local economy could stall while residents try to overcome their shock, the report said.
The strategic studies center found that participants in the simulated attack, including the police and fire departments and the Federal Emergency Management Agency, were "clearly not prepared to deal with" the presence of radioactivity found in the bomb.
A 1987 situation in Goiania, Brazil, illustrates the havoc that could be caused by dirty bombs.