By MILAN PAURICH

By MILAN PAURICH
VINDICATOR CORRESPONDENT
BEST PICTURE:
What a curious year! A box-office hit from May ("Gladiator") becomes the odds-on favorite simply through a process of elimination. How's that? Director Steven Soderbergh effectively cancels himself out by having two films ("Erin Brockovich" and "Traffic") competing against each other. The charming but slight "Chocolat" hasn't got a prayer, only making the short list of nominees because of an aggressive Miramax marketing campaign. ("Almost Famous," "Cast Away," or, in the best of all possible worlds, "You Can Count on Me," all deserved this slot more.) Although "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon" is an even better example of the sort of epic filmmaking Oscar loves than "Gladiator," it will undoubtedly have to content itself with winning the less-prestigious Foreign Film trophy. And, if through some weird aberration it does manage to sneak through, don't you think the Academy's very own version of Katherine Harris will somehow fudge the voting to ensure that the home team wins?
SHOULD WIN "Traffic"
WILL WIN "Gladiator"
BEST ACTOR:
Tom Hanks suffers from the same problem plaguing his pal, Steven Spielberg; he's simply too good too often for his own sake. Chances of Hanks' winning his third Best Actor trophy are negligible -- particularly since Oscar seems to have gone out of his way to slight "Cast Away" by practically shutting it out of the race. Although he isn't especially well-liked in Hollywood, a win for Russell Crowe would be a way of justifying "Gladiator" as the Best Picture choice. Geoffrey Rush doesn't belong here for his flagrant scenery-chewing in "Quills;" nor does Javier Bardem for "Before Night Falls." Potential spoiler Ed Harris' nomination is probably its own reward, but where is Michael Douglas for his career-high work in "Wonder Boys," or Mark Ruffalo (as instrumental to the success of "You Can Count on Me" as Best Actress nominee Laura Linney)?
SHOULD WIN Hanks
WILL WIN Crowe
BEST ACTRESS:
Finally, a lock! Julia Roberts will come home a winner for "Erin Brockovich," easily besting her closest competitor Ellen Burstyn in "Requiem for a Dream." (If Artisan had had the good sense to put Burstyn into the Supporting Actress category, the veteran would win hands down.) The Juliette Binoche nomination is mystifying, another example of Miramax hubris. Perennial also-ran Joan Allen is hurt by the box-office failure of "The Contender," and Laura Linney's film is surely deemed too tiny in Oscar's eyes.
SHOULD WIN Linney
WILL WIN Roberts
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Another probable lock. Benicio del Toro should ace this category, bringing home a win for the Soderbergh camp. His only real competition is veteran Albert Finney for "Erin Brockovich," another Soderbergh movie. Jeff Bridges, Willem Dafoe and Joaquin Phoenix are all deserving nominees, but their films are too (a) unsuccessful, (b) small, or (c) honored enough in other categories.
SHOULD WIN del Toro
WILL WIN del Toro
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Will bright newcomer Kate Hudson and previous Oscar winner Frances McDormand cancel each other out by being nominated for the same film ("Almost Famous")? Perhaps, but don't be surprised by a Hudson upset: Oscar loves dynasties, and Hudson's mom, Goldie Hawn, won this same award early in her career. Marcia Gay Harden's surprise nomination (like co-star Harris') is its reward, and Brits Judi Dench and Julie Walters could duke it out for the spoils. Though Dench has Miramax muscle going for her (as well as the S.A.G. award), Golden Globe winner Hudson's celebrity lineage ought to make the difference in the final stretch.
SHOULD WIN McDormand
WILL WIN Hudson
BEST DIRECTOR:
Dual-nominated Soderbergh can't win (alas), clearing the way for a satisfying victory by "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon" director Ang Lee. Stephen Daldry's "Billy Elliott" nomination is typical Oscar Anglophile brown-nosing, and Ridley Scott's loss will signal a lack of consensus in this strangest-of-all awards season.
SHOULD WIN Soderbergh, "Traffic"
WILL WIN Lee, "Crouching Tiger"
BEST FOREIGN FILM:
"Crouching Tiger" won't be permitted to win Best Picture, but Oscar will have no problem rewarding it this consolation prize. While both "Amores Perros" and "The Taste of Others" are eminently worthwhile choices, Hong Kong's "In the Mood for Love" (my personal favorite 2000 movie) somehow failed to garner a nomination.
SHOULD WIN "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon"
WILL WIN "Crouching Tiger"
BEST SONG:
Bob Dylan winning for his "Wonder Boys" song is as much of a sure thing as Roberts' Best Actress nod. And except for the haunting Bjork composition from "Dancer in the Dark," it's the only nominee that even remotely belongs here.
SHOULD WIN "Dancer in the Dark"
WILL WIN "Wonder Boys"