When bad weather hits, officials follow steps

Tornado activity is at its peak during the seasons of spring and summer.
By BOB JACKSON
VINDICATOR STAFF WRITER
YOUNGSTOWN -- Local weather officials know that April showers can bring much more than May flowers.
In northeast Ohio and western Pennsylvania, they can bring storms strong enough to push houses off their foundations, pull large trees out of the ground and blow chicken coops and sheds to smithereens.
It's the season for severe weather, especially tornadoes. Officials would rather see it pass without so much as a branch being blown off a tree, but they know that's not likely.
"You never know where or when those things are going to happen," said Jay Carter, director of the Columbiana County Emergency Management Agency. "All you can do is be ready for them if they do."
Season has begun: This is prime time for tornadic activity in the Mahoning and Shenango valleys, said Gary Garnet, warning coordination meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Cleveland. The season generally runs March through July.
"On any given day within that range, there could be a chance of a tornado," Garnet said.
Actually, tornadoes can strike any time of year, any time of day, according to statistics from the NWS. But the chances increase in spring and summer when severe weather from the South gets pushed northeast, said Richard Kane, who is warning coordination meteorologist for the NWS in Pittsburgh.
He said tornadoes strike most often between 3 and 10 p.m., but are by no means limited to those times. And in Pennsylvania, one day on the calendar seems to be a magnet for disaster: 10 percent of all the state's tornadoes and 18 percent of its most significant tornadoes have hit May 31, Kane said.
May 31 was also the date of the famous Johnstown flood that killed about 200 people in 1889, he said.
And it was the date of what Kane called the most prolific tornado outbreak ever recorded in this area.
In 1985, tornadoes hit Newton Falls, Niles and nearby communities in Trumbull County, then skipped eastward across the state line into Wheatland and Hermitage, leaving death, injury and millions of dollars in property damage in its wake.
"May 31 is traditionally a rough day in Pennsylvania," Kane said. "When it gets into late May we start getting a little nervous around here."
Garnet said there are no such infamous dates in Ohio, and chalked up the recurrence of bad weather on May 31 in Pennsylvania to chance.
What concerns officials: That chance factor is what makes tornadoes so worrisome for weather officials. Getting the word out to the public so people can take shelter is critical in preventing injuries and deaths when tornadoes strike, but can be difficult since they often strike with little warning.
That's why disaster officials spend much of their time educating the public about what to do during a tornado. Basic steps such as seeking shelter in a basement or a secure first-floor area are important, Carter said.
"If you let people know what is expected of them, most of them will do it," Carter said.
Local emergency officials rely on the National Weather Service to provide them with severe weather warnings. Using improved technology, the weather service has significantly improved its warning system from an average six-minute lead time a decade ago to about 10 minutes last year.
Each county has a series of warning sirens in place to sound the alert when severe weather is coming, but Carter said that's not always enough in rural counties such as Columbiana, where many homes and farms are outside the sirens' range.
In those cases, officials rely on local fire departments, ham-radio operators and the Emergency Broadcast System to get the word out, Carter said.
Little notice sometimes: Unlike hurricanes, which are tracked as they move across the ocean and usually come with days of forewarning, tornadoes can drop out of the sky at a moment's notice, Kane said. Officials keep their eye on weather conditions that are likely to spawn a tornado and then try to warn everyone in its path.
But people need to be aware of changes in weather patterns and know when conditions are ripe for a tornado, even when a warning has not yet been issued, said Walter Duzzny, Mahoning County EMA director.
"In northeast Ohio we are looking at weather that can change in a minute," he said, noting that's what happened when a twister touched down in Lowellville on April 2. "We've just got to be prepared for those changes."
Lowellville residents apparently recognized the potential for devastating weather and sought shelter, preventing anyone from being injured by the tornado, Duzzny said.
If history is a good indicator, this area is not due for tornado devastation like the May 1985 outbreak for several more years.
"Every 30 or 40 years, you see the big ones," Kane said. "In between, it's mostly smaller tornadoes." He said only about 10 percent of all tornadoes register above F2 on the Fujita scale, which classifies tornadoes according to their wind strength and damage.
Tornadoes aren't the only weather disaster for which local officials have to plan. Floods, blizzards, thunderstorms and heat waves are among the hazards the elements can present.
Even earthquakes, long thought to be nothing more than fodder for jokes about California, also are starting to creep closer and closer to this area. They don't figure prominently in local disaster plans, but are starting to get some attention, officials said.
"The thing I fear the most is an ice storm," Duzzny said. "If the power lines go down, this Valley would be crippled. And then how do you reach people?"
Seeking improvements: That's why Duzzny and his colleagues are always looking to improve their communication systems and make sure they have a backup plan in place to help them keep in touch with the public and with emergency personnel.
"If you don't have communication, you don't have anything," Carter said.
Duzzny said people should be prepared to bunker down in their homes and survive at least three days on their own after a tornado or other natural disaster. They should keep enough food, water, medicine, first aid, blankets, batteries and other supplies to get them by until help arrives, he said.
"Most people plan more for vacations than they do for emergencies," Duzzny said. "Some people just don't want to think about it, but most don't think it will ever happen to them."