One man's better idea

For everyone who believes the Bowl Championship Series is a flawed system -- and you can count yours truly among them -- perhaps the biggest complaint surrounds the eight computer ratings that seem to have an inordinate amount of influence on the standings.
So does Mark Carden. He's a Youngstown native currently living in Virginia. As a fan of college football in general and the Mid-American Conference specifically, Carden is upset with the subjective nature of the computer ratings.
For instance, he wonders how the Sagarin ratings can rank teams before any games have been played. It's obvious, he says, that Sagarin's own bias has been inserted into his model.
"Any computer model that ranks teams before a game has already been played," says Carden, "already shoots the theory that they're not subjective. It makes them flawed."
So Carden, an analyst with Capital One Financial in Richmond, Va., devised his own model that he says is completely objective.
Season begins at zero: For starters, every team begins with 0.0 points. In other words, all 202 schools he ranks in Division I and I-AA are tied for first at the start of the season.
"Being a fan of Miami [of Ohio] where I went to school and YSU, I was frustrated because it was impossible for the little guys to move up [in the polls and ratings].
"For instance, Miami would beat teams like Virginia Tech and Northwestern and not even make a dent in the polls. I wanted a system where every team should have a chance to win the national championship."
Carden's ratings are based on margin of victory and common opponents. His model first ranks teams within a conference then compares conferences against each other based on head-to-head games.
There's no diminishing returns principle, he says. In many ratings, a 40-point win counts the same as a two-pointer. In Carden's ratings, a 40-point win is a 40-point win.
There's also no adjustment for home or away wins or wins later in the season.
"How do you determine how many points to give for home-field advantage?" asks Carden. "That would add an element of subjectivity to it. Also, how do you determine how or why a victory in November is more important than one in September?"
Some surprises: So Carden ran his numbers for us and we were surprised at the results, as you might be.
No surprise who was number one -- Miami (Fla.). But, Carden's runner-up ... Nebraska.
"Other than the 'Canes, every team up there you could look at a reason why they shouldn't be there," says Carden.
Even more surprising was Carden had Colorado at No. 8, behind three other Big 12 schools -- Texas (No. 4), Oklahoma (No. 5) and Kansas State (No. 7, despite a 6-5 record).
"If you look strictly at head-to-head, Colorado was 26 points better than Nebraska," says Carden, "but the computer looks at all their common opponents, too. Colorado had only one other win by more than three touchdowns while Nebraska beat everyone by a large margin."
Carden also noted the Buffaloes' Big 12 championship game victory over Texas was by a much smaller margin than the 'Horns' regular season win.
At No. 3 was Florida, despite a late-season loss to Tennessee, which finished at No. 11.
"Again, Tennessee's win at Florida was by a small margin, and if you look at the common opponents, Florida won them all by greater margins than Tennessee," says Carden.
YSU 20th: Carden also was surprised by how poorly the Gateway Conference fared, offering a reason why Youngstown State was left out of the I-AA playoffs despite an 8-3 record.
"The Gateway didn't have a single game [against a I-A team] they could hang their hat on," he says. "The two games that really stuck out in my mind were Tulsa's 51-0 win over Indiana State -- that was Tulsa's only win of the season -- and Northern Iowa's 45-0 loss to Iowa State."
Youngstown State finished 123rd in Carden's final ratings, and 20th among I-AA teams. The Gateway Conference was one of his poorest ranked in I-AA.
There's some other peculiarities in Carden's ratings. Iowa, for instance, is his top-ranked Big Ten team, at No. 16. Michigan is 22nd, Illinois is 28th and Ohio State 32nd.
No system is perfect. However, one that is completely objective, like Carden's, is a good place to start. The only logical place to end? A playoff.
XRob Todor is sports editor of The Vindicator. Write to him at todor@vindy.com.