WEATHER Expert warns of cold reality

New wind chill numbers will mask the same old cold.
By STEPHEN SIFF
VINDICATOR TRUMBULL STAFF
WARREN -- This weather is indeed too good to last.
A balmy few weeks notwithstanding, the Mahoning and Shenango valleys are heading for a colder than average winter, with the usual helpings of snow and ice, according to a meteorologist.
"Don't be fooled by the fact that it is 50 degrees out right now," Gary Garnet, a meteorologist for the National Weather Service, told a group of about 30 police, school and government officials at the Trumbull County Emergency Management Agency offices. "We really haven't gotten into winter yet. Winter begins Dec. 21."
Cold blasts: And what do we have to look forward to? Blasts of arctic air, perhaps as many as seven of them, bringing temperatures down below freezing for weeks, spaced between stretches of 40-degree days.
"What we expect in this part of the country," Garnet said.
No El Ni & ntilde;o, no La Ni & ntilde;a, just the arctic winds -- and an extra dose of them, too. Meteorologists have come to expect about five cold blasts a winter, rather than the seven predicted this year.
The fact that we haven't been hit once so far could just mean Mother Nature is saving them up for later.
"We haven't had any yet, so the law of averages is telling us it is coming," Garnet said.
New system: If the bad news is the National Weather Service is forecasting average temperatures a few degrees lower than usual, the good news is that the numbers will at least look better. This winter, the agency will be announcing wind chill factors computed under a new system, which Garnet says more accurately reflects how cold is felt on an exposed face.
Under the new system, the same temperature and wind speed combination will produce a higher wind chill factor than it did under the old system.
For example, a 15-mph wind on a 0-degree factor had produced a wind chill of 31 below under the old system. Now, it will be a wind chill of 19 below.
XExtension agent says the warm weather means challenges for farmers and backyard gardeners. B4