BIOLOGICAL TERRORISM Simulation helps prepare for attack

Local safety officials were shown how 24 cases of smallpox could quickly become a national crisis.
By IAN HILL
VINDICATOR STAFF WRITER
AUSTINTOWN -- It would all start with 24 people in emergency rooms at area hospitals. Two weeks later, 1,000 people could be dead and 14,000 people in 25 states could be infected with smallpox, a disease caused by a virus that could be used as a biological weapon.
"Smallpox is the one we're all talking about now," said Col. Chuck Coleman, the Ohio Army National Guard's representative to the Mahoning County Emergency Management Agency. In June, federal officials conducted an exercise at Andrews Air Force Base in Maryland to determine how a smallpox outbreak could affect the country next year. In the exercise, 1,000 people died from the disease during the first two weeks after the 24 cases were diagnosed in December 2002.
Coleman discussed the exercise, called "Dark Winter," at a meeting of the county EMA's Weapons of Mass Destruction Working Group on Tuesday morning in Austintown. Some of the safety officials at the meeting also talked about the steps they were taking to prepare for a possible smallpox outbreak in the area.
Smallpox, which is fatal in 30 percent of all cases, is spread by saliva droplets from an infected person. Symptoms include high fever, head and back aches, and flat red lesions on the skin.
A case of smallpox hasn't been recorded in the United States since 1949. But U.S. safety officials are concerned that terrorists could use man-made smallpox viruses as a weapon.
Simulation set-up: The exercise called for participants to act as national and state officials and deal with 24 hypothetical cases of smallpox in Oklahoma City on Dec. 9, 2002. A few cases also go unreported in two other states. An unidentified terrorist was said to be responsible for the infections.
Participants in the exercise included former U.S. Sen. Sam Nunn, who played the role of the president, former presidential adviser David Gergen, who played the role of the National Security Adviser, and Oklahoma Gov. Frank Keating, who played himself.
They found that in just two weeks, the disease could overwhelm the country's medical system and put federal and state officials at odds with one another on how to deal with the crisis. In addition, during those weeks the country's stockpile of 12 million doses of the smallpox vaccine could be depleted. As a result, federal officials may be forced to quarantine Americans who had been exposed to smallpox to prevent continued spread of the disease.
"It's a real eye-opener," county EMA Director Walter Duzzny said of the exercise. Duzzny added that he feels local officials are "better prepared than we think we are" for a smallpox outbreak. He noted that the county's weapons of mass destruction working group, which was formed two years ago, meets each month to discuss preparations for a crisis like an attack by a terrorist armed with an infectious disease.
Local preparation: The group would meet within two hours after an attack, Duzzny said, and each group member would be charged with dealing with an aspect of the crisis that is within his or her area of expertise. Members of the group include representatives from area hospitals, government agencies, and fire and police departments.
Public health officials, for example, would be responsible for determining if an infected person should be quarantined. Duzzny said.
Rick Setty, the director of environmental health for the Mahoning County District Board of Health, noted that Ohio public health officials are working on an update of the state's quarantine plan.
Duzzny stressed that by preparing for an attack, working group members like Setty are trying to do what's best for local residents.