CREATIVE AMBIGUITY OVER TAIWAN

Chicago Tribune: The confrontation between the United States and China over the American surveillance plane ended last week with the Chinese getting expressions of regret and the U.S. getting its crew back. For the Bush administration, it was a jarring introduction to Sino-American relations, a subject that is crucial to the peace of Asia and the success of his administration.
President Bush has been forced to recognize China's importance. "During the last 11 days," said the president afterward, "the United States and China have confronted strong emotions, deeply held and often conflicting convictions, and profoundly different points of view." The experience could push each into more risk-taking and saber-rattling -- or into more sober and careful policies.
Central issue: The spy plane episode, in fact, could be seen as a scaled-down version of the central issue of Taiwan, with the two sides pitted against each other in a showdown that could lead to military conflict -- and both looking for a way to protect what they see as their fundamental interests without coming to blows. Fortunately, each has an interest not in altering the current status of Taiwan but in preserving it.
This episode, however, makes the issue more explosive. The release of the American crew was a retreat by the Chinese. Beijing's rulers may conclude from this that it won't be easy to bully Bush on Taiwan. But the setback also raises the stakes for them on anything the U.S. does with respect to the island.
That's a good reason for the administration not to force Beijing into a corner. But many critics of China in Congress are angry over the spy plane matter and think the only proper response is to make an unmistakable show of support for Taiwan. For them, that means selling Taipei the advanced Aegis anti-missile system and other advanced equipment.
Such a deal would be a thumb in the eye of the Beijing government. Last month, Vice Premier Qian Qichen warned that it could lead to war. And it would do little to improve Taiwan's security, since China could be expected to respond by building enough missiles to overwhelm any defense.
Fortunately, the Aegis wouldn't be ready for shipment for at least four years, which means there is no need for Bush to approve the idea now. Doing so would satisfy hard-line critics of China, but it would only enhance the influence of hard-liners in Beijing.
In any case, as Harvard scholar Robert Ross argues, Taiwan's security ultimately depends primarily on the U.S. commitment to assist it in a crisis -- as dramatized when President Clinton responded to Chinese missile firings by sending aircraft carriers to the area.
Protection: "Our credibility on that issue is better than it has been since the 1960s," Ross notes. "Domestic support for Taiwan is greater, and domestic opposition to China is greater." Bush's insistence on continuing the spy flights should leave no doubt that he places great importance on protecting the island from attack by the mainland.
But he needs to make it clear as well that the United States will not countenance any step by Taipei to upset the status quo by moving toward independence.
RIGHT IDEA, WRONG CRAFT?
Philadelphia Inquire: One way or another, the V-22 Osprey will go down in military history.
It may yet fulfill the Marine Corps' vision of a troop carrier that zooms like a plane but lands like a helicopter. Or, it may be remembered mainly as an emblem of Pentagon mismanagement and congressional pork-barreling that cost 30 lives in crashes.
Last December, the Defense Department delayed full-scale production of the Osprey and launched a sweeping review. That was the least the Pentagon could do after a crash in North Carolina killed the program's most experienced pilot and three other Marines, the vehicle's third fatal crash.
Unfortunately, the department doesn't have much credibility these days as it readies its report and weighs the Osprey's fate. That's because the Marine Corps was so eager to acquire this complicated, expensive aircraft that it cut corners on testing. The Defense Department's Inspector General is also investigating whether a Marine Corps commander covered up chronic maintenance problems.
Credibility problem: Nor does Congress have credibility as a fair-minded arbiter. Not only has the Osprey gotten zealous support from pols close to its main plants but it also has built a coast-to-coast fan club by subcontracting work to at least 40 states!
This pork spread helped keep the plane alive in the early 1990s when then-Secretary of Defense Dick Cheney tried to kill it. All things considered, there's now a heavy burden on the pro-Osprey side to make a fresh case that it is more than a costly flying casket.
The Osprey feature that Marine brass loves -- tilt-rotors that can swivel to fly the craft either vertically or horizontally -- is also central to its problems. On a good day, it could serve to drop Marines into a hot spot with speed and stealth, helping them accomplish a mission with less loss of life. But when the aircraft pivots in midair, it's at maximum risk of crashing, as happened again last December.
The plane's supporters argue that it has other advantages over today's slower helicopters such as Army Black Hawks and Navy Sea Knights. Military personnel on board an Osprey will be more likely to survive a crash at sea -- but critics say the twin-rotor craft is more likely to crash while in helicopter mode than a conventional chopper is. Supporters point out that the V-22 was designed to protect those aboard from chemical or biological weapons -- but the U.S. General Accounting Office says it may not even protect people against extreme temperatures.