Friday, October 19, 2018
Playoff scenarios will begin to take shape tonight across the Mahoning Valley
By Steve Ruman
The Ohio High School Athletic Association playoffs may officially begin Nov. 2, but the postseason begins tonight for the McDonald Blue Devils.
The scenario for McDonald to play beyond Week 10 is simple. If the Blue Devils defeat Western Reserve and Lowellville, they will advance to the postseason. A loss to Western Reserve tonight would keep McDonald out of the playoffs for a fourth straight year.
“We’ve had to treat every week like a playoff week, and this is no different,” said McDonald coach Dan Williams. “McDonald versus Western Reserve is always special, it’s one of those games the community looks forward to and the players circle before the season even starts. They are a great program, and they’ve gotten the best of us lately so this is especially big for our seniors.”
Despite its 8-0 record, McDonald is 10th in the Division VI, Region 21 computer ratings. Ironically, if the Blue Devils were in Division II, Region 5, they would be ranked seventh, just behind Warren G. Harding and Boardman.
“Our region is stacked this year, it’s rare to be undefeated this late and on the outside looking in, but that’s just the way that it goes,” Williams said. “We just have to take care of business.”
Girard, Valley Christian and Southington also can advance to Week 11 by winning their final two games of the regular season. Of the three, Valley Christian (5-3) is in the best position — the Eagles have a 96-percent chance of advancing even with a 5-5 record, according to the fantastic50.net. The website provides detailed playoff projections and analysis based on past results and future probabilities.
Girard (7-1) hosts LaBrae (8-0), then closes the season at Liberty.
“We have a mature group, we have 23 players back from last year so they’ve been through this,” said Girard coach Pat Pearson. “The pressure has been there all year long, but they’ve taken things step by step, focusing on the job at hand.
“LaBrae has a dynamic offense and an aggressive defense. They are the hottest team in the area. We’re looking forward to Friday night. It’s going to be special.”
LaBrae, Canfield and Hubbard have already secured a post-season bid.
The area will see at least two other teams punch their tickets this week. The winner of the East-Warren Harding game will advance, as will the winner between Austintown Fitch (6-2) and Boardman (5-3).
Harding (6-2) is a near-lock regardless of this week’s outcome. Even with a loss, the other three schools would still be provided with a better-than-even chance to advance. East also is 6-2.
Poland, Crestview and Southern all need to win one of their final two games to play beyond Week 10.
Poland faces the most daunting of challenges. The Bulldogs (6-2) host Hubbard (8-0) tonight, then close the season at Canfield (7-1). Crestview (5-2) has a better than 90-percent chance of advancing even with a 5-4 record.
Seven area schools — West Branch, Struthers, East Liverpool, South Range, Springfield, Lisbon and Leetonia — all need a pair of victories and outside help.
Three other schools — Western Reserve, Warren JFK and Columbiana — though not mathematically eliminated, are extreme long-shots even with a pair of wins to close out the season.
The OHSAA will announce the official playoff pairings on Oct. 28. The postseason will conclude with seven state championship games being played at Canton’s Tom Benson Hall Of Fame Stadium the weekend of Nov. 29-Dec. 2.