Valley Congress races viewed as competitive

Associated Press

CINCINNATI

Ohioans checking congressional election results this November can expect to see a lot of “W’s” for the candidates marked “I” for incumbent.

All 16 of the state’s U.S. House members are seeking re-election, and all 16 are considered favored to keep their seats as campaigning hits its final month.

Only in the 14th and 6th Districts, both of which include portions of the Mahoning Valley, do analysts see the races as competitive.

“This is one of those cases when the conventional wisdom is absolutely right,” said Daniel Tokaji, an Ohio State University law professor who’s an authority on elections and voting rights. Tokaji said he doesn’t see much chance for unseating incumbents “absent some major unforeseeable developments.”

The way House districts are drawn makes it very difficult for challengers in the general elections, with upsets more likely in primaries, Tokaji said.

A few districts are still considered competitive, however, and potentially low voter turnout for midterm elections could be a factor in some races — especially with the top-of-the-ballot gubernatorial race generating little excitement as polls indicate Gov. John Kasich is headed to a lopsided re-election.

Democrats have indicated they see their best opportunities for upsets in Northeast Ohio’s 14th District, which includes a portion of Trumbull County, and eastern Ohio’s 6th District which includes Columbiana County and a portion of Mahoning County.

GOP freshman Dave Joyce is getting a spirited challenge in the 14th from Democratic attorney Michael Wager. Recent ads in the race have taken a negative turn, with Wager’s describing Joyce as “just another greedy congressman,” while Joyce’s calls Wager “a desperate politician who will say anything.” Wager, a former Cleveland area port authority chairman, hasn’t held major elective office before.

In the 6th District, which sprawls across 18 counties, Republican Rep. Bill Johnson, an Air Force veteran, seeks his third term against Jennifer Garrison, a former Democratic legislator whose anti-abortion, pro-gun rights views could help win back working-class voters who have been voting Republican.

in recent years.

In another northern Ohio district, the 16th, Democrat Pete Crossland, a former state legislator, is pressing two-term Republican Rep. Jim Renacci in his uphill race. The Northeast Ohio Media Group reported that Crossland was aggressive in a recent debate at the City Club of Cleveland, lumping Renacci with conservative Republicans while Renacci said he wanted the government to stay out job creators’ way and that President Barack Obama’s health care overhaul should be repealed.

House Speaker John Boehner faces a little-known Miami University professor, Tom Poetter, as his Democratic challenger in western Ohio’s 8th District. Boehner’s campaign has been running TV commercials, which the campaign has said are meant to keep Republicans energized and get out the vote for the full ticket.

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