Saturday, December 20, 2014
In just over two years, Israel will mark 50 years since its 1967 victory on the battlefield, which resulted in its taking control of Old Jerusalem, the West Bank, Sinai, Gaza and the Golan Heights in battles lasting six days. The war increased the territory under Israel’s control by a factor of three.
Over the next three months, an election battle between Israel’s two main political parties, Likud and Labor, as well as splinter parties on the right and left, will decide what Israel will look like when that 50th anniversary is marked.
Today, the ramifications of that 1967 victory and its impact on what was created as a Jewish state in 1947 must be viewed through the lens of demographics.
In Israel and all of the occupied territories, there are about 3.7 million Jews and 2.4 million Arabs, said Dr. Arnon Soffer, a demographic expert at Haifa University. He estimated that in 10 years there would be 4.2 million Jews and 3.8 million Arabs. “That is not,” he observed, “a Jewish state.” Those statistics are out of date. They were provided by Soffer to a group of journalists, including a Vindicator editor, on a trip to Israel 25 years ago.
Soffer was quoted earlier this year in an Associated Press story on the changing demographics of Israel and the territory it controls. The estimated population in 2013 was 6.1 million Jews and 5.8 million Arabs. While it has taken about 25 years to reach the near parity that Soffer thought might happen in10, the end result is the same. If Israel cannot or will not reach a two-state agreement with the Palestinians, the demographic tipping point will soon be reached. On the other hand, Soffer told the AP, if Israel were to give up most of the West Bank, it could assure a Jewish majority at home “for eternity.”
Those who disagree argue today — very much as they did 25 years ago — that a sovereign and hostile Palestinian state would make it impossible for Israel to protect itself from future attacks.
When Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called earlier this month for new elections, it was seen as an effort to solidify support for his party and his view that bigger was better for Israel. Netanyahu has steadfastly expanded Jewish settlements into the occupied territories, which has irritated Israel’s strongest supporter, the United States, and angered European nations, which have become increasingly sympathetic toward the Palestinians.
A conference of the Fourth Geneva Convention recently adopted a resolution characterizing Israel’s settlements as a colonization of the occupied territories and a violation of the rules of war. Meanwhile the Palestinian Authority is resurrecting a resolution to be submitted to the United Nations Security Council calling for Israel’s total withdrawal from the occupied territories.
Reason for concern
Those who believe that peace in the Middle East is going to require a two-state solution have reason to be concerned. Early polls in Israel show that Netanyahu is vulnerable. A prime minister backed by a Labor coalition would be willing and might be able to move toward a peaceful compromise.
But if Israeli voters see their nation under siege from hostile forces in Europe and aggressive diplomatic attacks by Palestinians in the United Nations, they could shift support back to Netanyahu. And if he were re-elected, it would only come with support from splinter parties that believe in even more settlements and no territorial compromise.
That would hasten the day when Israel and its territories would be ruled by a Jewish minority, which would spell the end of the only democratic state in the region.