Israel ponders response to Palestinian bid

September 26, 2011 at 12:00a.m.

Los Angeles Times

JERUSALEM

As Israel considers its reaction to the Palestinian drive for recognition of statehood at the U.N., officials are weighing calls for swift retaliation against fears that tough measures could be counterproductive.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says he is evaluating Israel’s next step. But key members of his right-wing coalition are pushing for a firm response, which they say would discourage Palestinians from pursuing their strategy of gaining United Nations recognition or taking other unilateral steps away from the negotiating table.

Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman has warned Palestinians of grave consequences and, according to one Israeli newspaper report, threatened to quit the government unless punitive actions were taken. He later denied saying that he would quit over the issue.

Lieberman and others say the Palestinian application for U.N. membership violates the 1993 Oslo peace accords, which committed both sides to work out their differences at the negotiating table. As a result, they say Israel should annex all or part of the West Bank, terminate the Oslo accords or cut off tax transfers that Israeli ports collect on behalf of the Palestinian Authority. Those revenues, worth about $100 million a month, account for much of the authority’s budget.

But concerns are growing that such a harsh response could backfire for Israel by fueling extremism and increasing instability in the West Bank.

“While the government might make a lot of noise and talk loudly in response to the Palestinian step, there’s little it can really do in terms of concrete, effective steps,” said Middle East expert Mark Heller of Tel Aviv’s Institute for National Security Studies.

Critics say tough measures by Israel might cause the Palestinian Authority to collapse, leaving a security vacuum in the West Bank. The authority employs about 80,000 security personnel, who cooperate closely with the Israel Defense Forces and function as a first line of defense in large West Bank cities.

Diplomats from the United States and other countries are urging Israel to refrain from freezing the tax transfers.

Israeli army commanders have echoed such sentiments, officials said.

Israelis aren’t the only ones vowing to punish the Palestinian Authority. American lawmakers have proposed legislation to cut off about $500 million in annual U.S. assistance to Palestinians in response to the U.N. initiative.

The Obama administration opposed Palestinians’ U.N. membership bid, formalized Friday by Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas. The bid for full U.N. membership is likely to remain for several weeks in the Security Council, where the U.S. has vowed to veto it if it comes to a vote. However, the administration is concerned that cutting off U.S. funds is against American interests.

Analysts say a collapse of the Palestinian Authority would result in the disbanding of U.S.-trained security forces, opening a window for Islamic militants, particularly Hamas, the key rival to Abbas. Despite a recent reconciliation agreement, Abbas’ Fatah movement and Hamas, which controls the Gaza Strip, remain deeply divided.