Worldwide stocks dive on fears of recession

dow volatility returns

Associated Press

NEW YORK

Investors began giving in to fears Thursday that a global recession is already under way, and stock markets shuddered around the world. Selling started in Asia, picked up speed in Europe and sent Wall Street near its worst finish of the year.

The Dow Jones industrial average lost 391 points and at one point was down more than 500, a return to the volatility that gripped the market this summer.

One financial indicator after another showed that investors are losing hope that the global economy can keep growing. The price of oil and metals such as copper, which depend on economic demand, fell sharply. Traders bought Treasury bonds and the dollar for safety.

FedEx, a company that ships so many goods it is considered a barometer of the U.S. economy, had to lower its earnings forecast for the year because customers are putting off purchases of electronics and other gadgets from China.

The Dow fell 391.01 points, or 3.5 percent, and closed at 10,733.83. The selling was not just steep but broad: Nineteen stocks on the New York Stock Exchange fell for every one that rose. At one point, the Dow was down more than 500 points.

“Markets rely on confidence and certainty. Right now there is neither,” said John Canally, an economic strategist at LPL Financial, an investment firm in Boston.

It was the second-consecutive rout in the stock market since Wednesday afternoon, when the Federal Reserve announced a change in strategy for fighting the economic slowdown — a bid to lower long-term interest rates and get people and companies to spend more money.

Economic news was bad around the world. A closely watched survey in Europe indicated a recession could be on the way there, and a manufacturing survey suggested a slowdown in China, which has been one of the hottest economies.

“The probability of going back into recession is higher now than at any point in the recovery,” said Tim Quinlan, an economist at Wells Fargo. He put his odds of a recession at 35 percent.

Christine Lagarde, the head of the International Monetary Fund, said the world economy was “entering a dangerous phase.” She told an annual meeting of the IMF and World Bank that nations need credible plans to get their debt under control.

In the United States, investors poured money into American government debt, which they see as less risky than stocks even as the nation wrestles with how to tame its long-term budget problems.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note hit 1.71 percent — the lowest since the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis started keeping daily records half a century ago. It was 3.66 percent as recently as February, when the economic forecast was brighter.

Yields fall as investors buy bonds and send their prices higher. Small yields are a sign that investors are just looking for a safe place to park their cash.

“They want to get their money back,” said Guy Le-Bas, chief fixed income strategist at Janney Capital Markets. “How much they earn is secondary.”

Besides U.S. bonds, investors bought American dollars. The dollar rose to an eight-month high against the euro because of fears that Europe, staggered by debt, will bear the worst of a global downturn.

The Dow almost matched its lowest close of the year, 10,719 on Aug. 10. The stock market was seized by volatility last month, and at one point the Dow strung together four consecutive days of 400-point moves up or down.

In a sign of what a rocky year it has been for the stock market, Thursday’s decline isn’t even close to the biggest in 2011. The Dow fell 634 points on Aug. 8, 519 points on Aug. 10 and 512 points on Aug. 4.

It would have to fall 485 more points to reach the traditional definition of a bear market — a 20 percent decline. The Dow was at 12,810 on April 29.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 index, a broader measure of the stock market, and the Nasdaq composite, which is more heavily weighted with technology stocks, both fell more than 3 percent for the day.

To get the economy going, President Barack Obama has proposed a $447 billion package of tax cuts, public works projects and benefits for the unemployed, but it faces major opposition in the Republican-controlled House.