GOP’s Kasich leads in poll on Ohio governor race

By WILLIAM HERSHEY

COLUMBUS — Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland, who roared into office three years ago with nearly 61 percent of the vote, trails Republican John Kasich 51-45 percent in a Vindicator/Ohio Newspaper Poll released today.

The great recession has put voters in a sour mood and left them open to change, said Eric Rademacher, poll director.

“If the election were held tomorrow, we might be talking about how a bad economy contributed to a political environment that had voters in the mood to fire their incumbent governor,” said Rademacher, co-director of the University of Cincinnati’s Institute for Policy Research.

The election, however, isn’t until November, and that’s “millions of miles away in political terms,” said Rademacher.

“If the past is any guide, before the year is over the gubernatorial race will take many twists and turns,” he said.

Mahoning County Democratic Chairman David Betras and Mahoning Republican Vice Chairman Mark Munroe agree there’s plenty of time between now and the Nov. 2 election.

“Eleven months is a lifetime in politics,” Betras said. “I’m very interested in talking about John Kasich’s vote on NAFTA [North American Free Trade Agreement] and job-killing deals that have left thousands of Mahoning Valley residents unemployed. It will be a competitive race. I have no doubt Ted Strickland will win once we educate the voters on how kooky John Kasich’s economic plan is for the state.”

Munroe said he’s not surprised by the polling results because others have shown Kasich leading Strickland.

“It’s very encouraging; [Kasich] is a strong candidate in a great political environment,” he said. “Ted Strickland’s record is uninspiring. He ran on a platform of turning Ohio around. He’s done that, but it’s turned for the worse. These early polls are fund to look at and cause us hope and encouragement. But it’s very early and things can change over the course of a campaign.”

Tough times appear to have helped Kasich even as fellow Republican and former President George W. Bush remains in many voters’ doghouse.

When asked who’s to blame for Ohio’s economic misery, Bush ranked first, at 24 percent, followed by Wall Street and financial institutions at 23 percent and the U.S. Congress, 19 percent. President Barack Obama got the blame from 13 percent while just 3 percent blamed Strickland.

Republicans, Democrats and independents agree on one thing: The economy will be the most important issue in determining how they vote for governor. Fifty-two percent rated the economy tops, with K-12 education a distant second at 10 percent. Balanced budget, taxes and health care/health insurance each got 7 percent.

“Voters are going to want to hear about the economy first, the economy second and the economy third,” Rademacher said.

While the poll focused on the governor’s race and the economy, respondents had a chance to weigh in on other issues.

Likely voters in the poll were asked about a projected state budget shortfall of several billion dollars facing the next governor. The shortfall is projected because billions of dollars of federal stimulus and one-time money used to balance the current budget won’t be available next year.

Just 4 percent said the budget should be balanced through “state tax increases” while 34 percent said spending cuts should be used. The biggest number – 58 percent – said “a combination of tax increases and spending reductions” should be used.

On proposed legislation to prohibit housing and workplace discrimination based on sexual orientation or gender identity, likely voters were divided.

Forty-eight percent said they favored the bill, 43 percent opposed it and 9 percent didn’t know. The bill has passed the House but is currently stalled in the Senate.

The poll findings are from a statewide sample, chosen at random, of 808 likely voters interviewed by telephone. The poll was conducted by the Institute for Policy Research at the University of Cincinnati between Jan. 13 and Jan. 19. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percent.

Vindicator Politics Writer David Skolnick contributed to this story.