Thursday, January 21, 2010
WASHINGTON (AP) — Among the winners in the new political order: independent-minded voters and the upstart newcomers they favor.
Also on the rise: the few Republican moderates left in Congress, the tea party movement and, paradoxically, both legislative stalling and deal making.
Losers? Just have a glance at President Barack Obama’s swollen to-do list. Instead of checking off his planned health care overhaul, climate legislation, energy priorities, judicial appointments and more, he might have to cross some off.
A compendium of winners and losers after Republican Scott Brown won the Massachusetts Senate seat of the late Ted Kennedy on Tuesday:
WINNER: GOP moderates and Maine
Maine moves closer to the center of the political universe, thanks to its two moderate Republican senators and their likely clout.
Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins are sure to be courted hard, if not on health care, then on other legislation. It’s a strong position to be in and one they know how to use to advantage.
LOSER: Obama.
Obama might be able to salvage a health-care overhaul of some sort. It’s a big if. Beyond that, other big-ticket items are in jeopardy, and so are smaller ones. It’s difficult to see where he gets the political capital to fulfill promises on letting gays serve openly in the armed forces, for example.
To be sure, Democrats still control Congress. And if Republicans overplay their new hand, voters can take retribution against them in the fall and restore the primacy of Obama’s agenda.
WINNER: Force-fed partisanship
Until now, odes to bipartisanship have been nothing but cotton-candy words on both sides. Democrats assembled their health care plan and brought it to the brink of becoming law without Republican support. Now the two parties have to eat their veggies and engage for anything meaningful to get done.
Still, the threat of filibuster looms over everything. With all 41 members on board, Senate Republicans can delay most things to death.
LOSER: Party labels.
Campaigning in one of the bluest of states, Brown rarely mentioned a rather important fact: He’s a Republican. He emphasized his independence instead. A similar approach helped Republicans win governor races in New Jersey and Virginia last year. Democrats might be expected to follow suit, dissociating themselves from the party brass.
WINNER: Political insurgencies.
Brown’s win emboldens other newcomers who would normally be written off. Could the race to replace Democratic Sen. Chris Dodd of Connecticut in the Senate also become competitive? How about Democratic Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand’s seat in New York? The tea-party activists, who powered a summer of discontent over the health-care legislation, showed their influence as well on Tuesday.