3 forces threaten Dems in ’10

Washington Post

WASHINGTON — Three forces threaten Democrats in the 2010 elections: populist anger on the right, disaffection in the middle and potential disillusionment on the left.

Little more than a year out, the political landscape for the coming midterm election looks decidedly more favorable for Republicans than in either of the last two elections — hardly a surprise given the shellacking they took in 2006 and 2008. Whether their expectations for 2010 are met or exceeded, however, depends on the confluence of the political forces that have been building since President Barack Obama’s inauguration.

Today, Republicans expect gains across the board. As Republican pollster Neil Newhouse put it, “In the last two election cycles, our candidates have been campaigning into the wind. Assessing the political environment right now, it sure looks like we’re going to have a nice little breeze at our back.”

But strategists aren’t certain whether that breeze will turn into a political gale.

Whatever problems Obama and the Democrats are having, Republicans aren’t wildly popular either. Former House speaker Newt Gingrich, who helped engineer the 1994 GOP victory, offered an astute analysis when asked to compare the climate today with conditions heading into 1994.

“People are more frightened than they were in ’93 and ’94. Both by the radicalism of the administration and by the economy,” Gingrich said. But he added, “They’re more skeptical of Republicans than they were in ’93 and ’94. The aftereffect of ’06 and ’08 is there’s not a rush to Republicans.”