Sunday, May 24, 2009
TEHRAN, Iran (AP) — Moments after Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s underdog victory four years ago, the streets in scruffy south Tehran were in full celebration for their native son.
Shops offered free sweets and tea. Women shouted prayers from open windows. The khaki-shirted basiji — the street vigilantes of the Islamic Revolution — chanted slogans and thanked God that a true ideological ally was now president.
The views toward him now are much more nuanced, conflicted and increasingly critical over issues that range from Iran’s gasping economy to his combative style with the West. How he responds could largely set the tone for the June 12 vote between Ahmadinejad and three challengers: a fellow hard-liner who led the powerful Revolutionary Guard, and two perceived reformers.
The election comes amid high-stakes challenges in Iran’s relations with the West and its own region.
The clock is ticking on Washington’s offer for dialogue on issues including Iran’s nuclear program. Iran’s test firing of a missile with a range that covers the entire Middle East, including Israel and U.S. bases, also was seen as a pre-election display of military muscle.
In practical terms, the outcome will likely make little difference because all major decisions are handed down directly by the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, or through the Revolutionary Guard. However, the election has strong symbolic value and will determine whether Ahmadinejad is seen as a suitable front man for the brinksmanship ahead with the Obama administration.
Ahmadinejad can still count on the twin pillars of his image — populist hero and champion for Islam — to swing him substantial support. But his uncomplicated messages of sharing the wealth and fighting for the faith that worked in 2005 no longer resonate the same way.
“The West is, as expected, looking at this election through a geo-strategic lens,” said Mehrzad Boroujerdi, a researcher in Iranian affairs at Syracuse University. “In Iran, it’s about things like jobs, rising prices and the country’s isolation.”
There’s no real Persian equivalent for the American political axiom, “It’s the economy, stupid.” There might be after this race.