Murder rate falls amid recession

WASHINGTON — Unemployment is high, the economy is down. Yet for all the signs of recession, something is missing: More crime.

Experts are scratching their heads over why crime has ebbed during this recession, making it different from other economic downturns of the past half-century. Early guesses include jobless folks at home keeping closer watch for thieves, or extra benefits keeping people from resorting to crime.

Preliminary figures gathered by the FBI for the first six months of 2009 show crime falling across the country — at a time when many experts and police officials had expected crime to rise under the pressure of high unemployment, foreclosures and layoffs.

Murder and manslaughter dropped a surprising 10 percent for the first half of the year, according to the FBI’s data.

“That’s a remarkable decline, given the economic conditions,” said Richard Rosenfeld, a sociologist at the University of Missouri-St. Louis who has studied crime trends.

Rosenfeld said he did not expect the 10 percent drop in killings to be sustained over the entire year, as more data is reported. But he said the broad declines are exceptional, given that past recessions have boosted crime rates dating back to the 1950’s.

The professor said there are several possible explanations, including that extended unemployment benefits and other government attempts at economic stimulus “have cushioned and delayed for many people the big blows that come from a recession.”

Those benefits will have to run out eventually, he cautioned.

Another possible factor is that with more people home from work, it is harder for burglars to break into a home or apartment unnoticed by neighbors, he said.