Ohio’s electoral votes are like gold

Ohio’s diverse demographics make the state a barometer for the race to the presidency.

COLUMBUS (AP) — “The State of Perfect Balance.” That’s Ohio’s new business slogan, but these days it might as well refer to politics.

Polls again show the presidential candidates running neck and neck in Ohio, where no Republican has lost and still gone on to the White House.

At stake: 20 electoral votes in a race so tight some pundits are talking about how an electoral college tie might be resolved.

Even the small but fiercely fought-over slice of independents are torn in their loyalties between Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain. Some polls show as many as one in 10 voters still undecided, though that number drops when survey respondents are asked who they’re leaning toward.

“Either one of those two men could do a good job in different ways,” said Pat Falkner, 75, a retired college registrar in Dayton who said she probably won’t make up her mind until Nov. 4.

Only two Democrats — Franklin Roosevelt and John Kennedy — have lost Ohio and been elected president. Some blame Al Gore’s 2000 loss on his decision to pull out of the state with just weeks remaining. Ohio gave President Bush a second term in 2004, by 118,000 votes out of 5.6 million.

The state’s blend of multiple left-leaning cities, prosperous GOP suburbs, right-leaning farm country and up-for-grabs Appalachian counties have long made it a reliable barometer for the presidency.

Obama and McCain and their running mates have taken notice, with visits in recent weeks to Portsmouth in southern Ohio (Obama), Strongsville in suburban Cleveland (McCain), Lancaster in fast-growing southeast Ohio (Joe Biden) and St. Clairsville in struggling eastern Ohio (Sarah Palin).

Ohio is open to change no matter who’s delivering it. The state never recovered from the post-Sept. 11 recession. Long a manufacturing bastion, Ohio has lost almost 250,000 factory jobs since 2000.

The unemployment rate is at 7.2 percent, well above the national average of 6.1 percent. Youngstown’s jobless rate is 9.7 percent. Ohio faces a budget deficit of $540 million during the final year of the state’s two-year, $52 billion budget.

The population has been static for years, and Census figures predict Ohio will start getting smaller in another dozen years or so. “The incredible shrinking state,” one newspaper dubbed it.

Such lousy headlines have made the economy a top issue for voters, such as Obama supporter Jessica Swiger of Columbus, a 37-year-old mortgage processor.

“He’s actually trying to help our economy and not bailing everybody out,” Swiger said at a recent Obama rally in Columbus. “We need somebody to come in and keep our jobs here and not have them shipped overseas.”

Yet new voter Kirsty Roby, 18, makes nearly the same comment about McCain.

“He’s really going to help us straighten the economy out,” said Roby, of Lancaster.

The battle for every voter is shaping up in Roby’s backyard of Fairfield County, where Obama is trying to crack a reliably Republican wall.

He has two field offices there in keeping with the campaign’s widespread grass-roots efforts. Democratic voter registration there has jumped by more than 500 percent from 2004, to 27,498.

Four years ago, the county was ground zero of the values-voter movement that saw conservative pastors mobilize voters to support Ohio’s gay marriage ban. That turnout was credited with helping put Bush over the top.

Fairfield Democrats say the increase in their voter registration ranks bodes well for Nov. 4. “People are just realizing they need to get involved, and we need to make a change,” said county Democratic chairman Dale Graham.

Republicans dismiss the registration numbers as a phenomenon of elevated interest in the primary election fight between Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton.

“The energy and enthusiasm, the number of calls we’re making, the number of signs we’re getting out — all the data for this time of year in the election far exceeds anything we’ve seen,” says Steve Davis, chairman of the Fairfield County Republican Party.

Ohio has 8.3 million voters registered for Nov. 4, a record. The latest figures show 2.3 million registered Democrats (28 percent) and 1.5 million registered Republicans (17 percent). The majority, 4.5 million or 55 percent, are unaffiliated voters, meaning they did not cast a ballot in the most recent primary.

But back to that state of perfect balance.

Ohio has the biggest number of auto parts suppliers in the country, is the nation’s seventh-biggest corn grower and is the second-biggest egg producer.

That’s one of the reasons McCain has wooed voters in the Youngstown area, home to a still thriving GM plant and an area that’s a tough sell for Republicans.

Not to be outdone in trips to the lion’s den, the Obama campaign has volunteers going door to door in farm country, mindful of Bush’s success there in 2004.

Both candidates have campaigned in Appalachia, a swing region that voted for President Clinton and Bush.

The state has sent thousands of soldiers to Iraq and Afghanistan, and both candidates have created veterans groups to push their plans for the wars.

That’s a top issue even beyond the economy for Nancie Snyder, a surgical nurse supporting McCain.

“He has the character, the integrity, the experience to go up against the terrorist,” said Snyder, 54, of Granville in central Ohio.