Next sales update for auto industry looks grim
By SHAWN LANGLOIS
SAN FRANCISCO — It’s almost time for another monthly U.S. sales update from the automotive industry, and clearly not enough has changed to portend anything other than more double-digit declines for Detroit manufacturers.
In fact, if it wasn’t for General Motors Corp.’s return to its popular employee pricing sales promotion, the struggling auto giant was tracking toward a whopping 50 percent year-over-year plunge in August car sales, according to Deutsche Bank analyst Rod Lache.
He forecast earlier this week that the revived incentives plan will pull some sales forward from upcoming months and buoy the total somewhat, but he’s still looking for GM to post a 30 percent drop from a “very difficult” comparison in the summer of last year.
All the major automakers are slated to hand in their August U.S. sales results next Wednesday, and while the numbers are expected to reflect an improvement from the prior month’s abysmal showing, they will likely, once again, reflect an industry in turmoil.
Lache said the same conditions that led to last month’s plunge still exist, including “low customer traffic driven by very poor durable goods buying conditions, difficult credit conditions driven by tightening standards and negative equity in trades, low availability of small cars, and a pullback in leasing.”
He projected that Ford Motor Co. sales fell 22 percent while Chrysler, which relies more on big trucks and SUVs than any other manufacturer, could report a 35 percent sales drop.
Toyota Motor Corp., which has shown uncharacteristic weakness in recent months, has been feeling the pressure of a beaten-down U.S. consumer as well, with Lache targeting a 12 percent fall-off for the Japanese giant.
Blaming weak demand in the key U.S. market, Toyota on Thursday reportedly cut its 2009 sales target to 9.7 million cars and trucks worldwide from 10.4 million. The company also said it expects to sell 2.7 million vehicles in North America next year, a level that represents no growth from its fiscal 2008 sales target for the region.
Nissan Motors is seen as the only major automaker posting better numbers, up about 1 percent. Lache is looking for an 8 percent slide for Honda Motor Co.