Hispanic fertility drives population growth in U.S.

McClatchy Newspapers

WASHINGTON — If it weren’t for Hispanic births, the U.S. could be confronting long-term population declines similar to those in Germany, Japan and other industrialized countries.

Hispanics are the only ethnic group now producing more than two children per family, according to a Census Bureau report released Monday. That’s the number necessary to replace the mother and father and keep the population stable.

“The Hispanic population is growing; whites and Asians are not replacing themselves,” said Jane Dye, the Census Bureau demographer who wrote the study.

The average U.S. woman produces 1.9 children, but broken down by ethnicity, the numbers are 1.7 for Asian Americans, 1.8 for non-Hispanic whites, 2.0 for blacks and 2.3 for Hispanics. American Indians weren’t included in the report. The fertility rates are sufficient, combined with immigration, to keep the U.S. population growing.

“It’s the Hispanic population that is keeping us above water in terms of growth, in terms of births,” said William Frey, a demographer for The Brookings Institution.

, a center-left policy research organization in Washington, D.C.

The report took a closer look at women who gave birth between January 2005 and December 2006. It found that:

UAbout a fifth of women at the end of childbearing age — 40 through 44 years old — have no children, double what the childless rate was 30 years ago. This figure approaches the rates during the Great Depression, according to Andrew Cherlin, a sociology professor at Johns Hopkins University who focuses on families and public policy.

UAbout a third of women with newborns didn’t have husbands at home. “A half-century ago, a woman who had a child outside of marriage was highly stigmatized,” Cherlin said. “Now, she’s likely to be accepted.”