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Few in Middle East expect peace

Thursday, November 29, 2007

In the U.S., there was some cautious optimism.

MCCLATCHY NEWSPAPERS

JERUSALEM — The Wednesday morning newspapers trumpeting the latest fresh start toward peace between Israelis and Palestinians hadn’t hit American doorsteps when the first crude Qassam rocket of the day soared out of the Gaza Strip and into southern Israel.

Before lunch, Palestinian Authority police in the West Bank were using truncheons to break up angry mourners trying to bury a demonstrator who was killed a day earlier while protesting the new peace initiative.

By the time Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas joined President Bush in the Rose Garden to launch the latest round of negotiations, an Israeli airstrike had killed two naval police officers in the Gaza Strip, where the militant Islamist group Hamas seized military control in June after winning U.S.-backed elections in January.

Things could have been worse on a day that was supposed to celebrate the beginning of a yearlong march to peace. But Wednesday’s events were a reminder that facts on the ground in the Middle East usually trump expectations in Washington.

“I expect peace talks will go on for a few months, maybe two or three or four months and then they will stop,” said Iyad Ibrahim, an Abbas supporter and computer engineer in the Gaza Strip. “There will be some Israeli operation or attack from Hamas.”

Few in Israel or the Palestinian territories had high hopes for this week’s Annapolis summit, but the agreement between Abbas and Olmert to try to forge a peace deal by the end of 2008 generated some cautious optimism.

At the White House, Bush met again Wednesday with Abbas and Olmert and called the Annapolis declaration a “hopeful beginning.”

“No matter how important yesterday was,” the president said, “it’s not nearly as important as tomorrow and the days beyond.”

Although Bush promised that the United States “will be actively engaged in the process,” the American role tomorrow and in the days ahead is unclear, beyond a vague promise to monitor and judge whether Israel and the Palestinians are living up to their commitments.

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice announced the appointment of retired Marine Gen. James Jones to be her special envoy for Middle East security, help Israelis and Palestinians deal with security issues and reach out to neighbors such as Egypt.

But in a land where experience almost always triumphs over hope, few expect the two leaders and their American shepherds to succeed.

“This is a total deception,” said Zakaria al-Qaq, vice president for external affairs at Al-Quds University in Jerusalem. “They are going to meet and meet and meet, but I think I will meet you in Christmas 2008, and we can look at the harvest. I don’t think it will produce any result.”