Officials predict low turnout in Valley

The weather won't make any difference in an odd-year election, some officials say.
By DAVID SKOLNICK
VINDICATOR POLITICS WRITER
YOUNGSTOWN -- A large majority of those who can vote in Tuesday's primary aren't expected to do so, according to officials with local boards of elections.
Turnout in Mahoning County should be between 22 percent and 23 percent, predicts Thomas McCabe, its elections board director. It may be better in Columbiana County, where Lois Gall, its elections director, says 28 percent to 29 percent of registered voters will cast ballots there.
Depending on whom you speak to in Trumbull County, turnout Tuesday of eligible voters will be between 28 percent and 30 percent, according to Rokey Suleman, its deputy elections director; or 30 percent to 35 percent, said the most optimistic Kelly Pallante, its elections director.
Either way, it's not even close to half of the eligible voters in the county.
"There's nothing driving people to the polls," Suleman said.
Though bad weather can keep voters at home, local election officials say its impact on Tuesday's primary is minimal because of the expected low turnout.
Voter turnout for odd-year primaries in the Valley is typically light.
During the three previous odd-year races, the 32 percent turnout in 2001 in Trumbull County is the only time a county in the Valley got close to one-third of its voters casting ballots in a primary.
Here's why
Elections for president, Congress, state and county seats are held in even years with much higher voter turnout. Odd-year primaries are for races in most cities and villages.
Some chartered cities and villages, Campbell and Sebring are examples, have run-off primaries later in the year instead of in May. Candidates in other communities -- such as Poland, Lordstown and McDonald -- have a few people file for primaries with most candidates running as independents in the November general election.
But even in Youngstown, where Democratic primaries for five of the seven city council seat will be held, the number of voters expected to cast ballots is small, McCabe said.
McCabe said his estimated turnout of 22 percent to 23 percent in Mahoning County may be too generous and under 20 percent is not out of the picture.
There's a 0.5-percent county sales and use tax for a continuing period of time on Tuesday's ballot. The tax raises about 14 million annually, and county officials say its passage is critical to its operations, including the jail.
For most of the county, the sales tax and a 2-mill, five-year Mental Retardation and Developmental Disabilities renewal tax levy are the only items on Tuesday's ballot.
"I don't see the sales tax driving voters to the polls," McCabe said. "I don't see it at all."
Besides the two levies and the Youngstown council races, there are citywide Democratic primaries in Struthers, renewal levies in Poland and Springfield townships and school tax measures in the Jackson-Milton and South Range school districts on Tuesday's ballot in the county.
"In 2005, turnout was only 26 percent, and that was with a Youngstown mayoral primary that drove turnout that year," McCabe said.
Columbiana Co. issue
The countywide tax issue in Columbiana County is a 1.5-mill MRDD tax levy for a continuous period of time. That's not going to bring the voters to the polls, Gall said. The MRDD levy is the only issue in about half of the county's voting precincts.
Like McCabe, Gall said her estimate is probably too generous.
"Twenty-five percent is pushing it, but I'm going to be optimistic," she said.
Outside of Girard, there is little interest in Tuesday's election in Trumbull County, Pallante and Suleman said.
Girard voters will consider a 3.8-mill, 28-year bond issue to raise 9 million for school district building and infrastructure improvements and a 0.5-mill continuing additional levy for general improvements.
Also, Girard Democrats can vote in mayoral and law director races.
Turnout in Girard could be as high as 40 percent, Suleman said.
Countywide tax issues make all registered voters in Mahoning and Columbiana counties eligible to vote Tuesday.
There is no countywide issue in Trumbull County and only 86 of the county's 274 voting precincts are open Tuesday.
In Warren, the county's most populous community, only the eight precincts in the 4th Ward -- the location of the only contested council primary in the city -- of its 58 precincts will be open Tuesday.
skolnick@vindy.com