Picking the Oscars: Think you can?

Who will win, and who should win? One critic makes her picks.
By RUTHE STEIN
SAN FRANCISCO CHRONICLE
Oscar is having a loopy year. "Dreamgirls" leads the pack with eight nominations, but none for best director or best picture. Of the five movies competing in the latter category, only "The Queen" secured a royal nod for best acting.
The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences continued its trend of the past several years by recognizing smaller independent films over major Hollywood fare -- one possible explanation why "Dreamgirls" fell short of votes for a best picture nomination.
Of those that made the cut, only "The Departed" has brought in more than 100 million at the box office.
"Hollywood studios need to amortize their investment always. They are forced to kind of reach a middle ground and put out movies that have more of a popular appeal," academy President Sid Ganis says, explaining why the fare at multiplexes around the country is less likely to become Oscar bait.
Ryan Gosling, Forest Whitaker, Peter O'Toole, Kate Winslet, Judi Dench and Jackie Earle Haley all received nominations for performances that were not widely seen.
Big-name presenters
The biggest names on the Oscar telecast Sunday will be the presenters, not the nominees. The only undisputed movie stars up for a gold statuette are Leonardo DiCaprio, Will Smith and Clint Eastwood, for directing "Letters From Iwo Jima."
Stretching the parameters slightly, you could add Winslet, Cate Blanchett and Meryl Streep -- although they're more "actresses" than targets for the paparazzi -- Mark Wahlberg, perennially on the verge of superstardom, and Eddie Murphy, who has emeritus movie star status.
It's a tough race to call.
The winners for best acting appear to be a lock, which makes me suspicious of an upset in at least one category.
The best picture competition, however, is wide open.
BEST PICTURE
It looks like "Babel" and "The Departed" headed into the final stretch. The argument against the latter is that it's beneath the academy to bequeath the top prize to a remake (of the Hong Kong thriller "Infernal Affairs"). On the other hand, "Babel" has deeply divided academy members, much as it has regular audiences. That could set the stage for an upset in which "Little Miss Sunshine" wins and everybody at the Kodak Theatre bursts into wild applause because, in their heart of hearts, it's the picture they love best.
Will win: "The Departed."
Should win: "Little Miss Sunshine."
BEST ACTOR
DiCaprio stood a chance, had he been nominated for "The Departed" instead of "Blood Diamond." As it is, he's out, along with Smith and Gosling. On the strength of his transcendent performance and Screen Actors Guild award, Whitaker should get a chance to deliver another charmingly bumbling speech. But some in the academy believe that his is more of a supporting role. Add to that the enormous sentiment for O'Toole, because this will probably be his last shot at a real Oscar (opposed to the honorary one he already owns) and there could be a surprise when the envelope is opened.
Will win: Forest Whitaker.
Should win: Whitaker.
BEST ACTRESS
Like Queen Elizabeth II, Helen Mirren's chances of being dethroned are nil. However, it's worth noting that she has formidable competition in Dench, Streep, Penelope Cruz and particularly Winslet.
Will win: Helen Mirren.
Should win: Mirren.
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Should there be an upset, it will most likely occur here. Murphy remains the front-runner, but he's not exactly Mr. Popularity in Hollywood. Like O'Toole, Alan Arkin has been around for a long time and may benefit from a similar feeling that this is his last chance for an Oscar. Dead or alive, he put the shine on "Little Miss Sunshine." Still, my vote goes to Wahlberg, for his outstanding performance in "The Departed."
Will win: Eddie Murphy.
Should win: Mark Wahlberg.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
The fairy-talelike ascent of Jennifer Hudson from "American Idol" loser to "Dreamgirls" showstopper makes her a shoo-in. Again affirming what a dazzling year it has been for actresses, Adriana Barraza, Rinko Kikuchi, Blanchett and little miss Abigail Breslin are all winners in their own right.
Will win: Jennifer Hudson.
Should win: Hudson.
DIRECTOR
After five directing nods, Martin Scorsese has perfected the half-smile for the camera as a competitor dashes up to the podium. Well, Marty, the time has come to break out your full grin. Nobody is taking the big prize away from you, not even Eastwood. "The Departed" isn't Scorsese's best effort, but it's hugely entertaining, and his artist's eye is evident in every frame.
Will (finally) win: Martin Scorsese.
Should win: Scorsese.
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Having seen "The Lives of Others," "Pan's Labyrinth," "Water," "Days of Glory" and "After the Wedding," I can attest that this is one awesome list. The best picture nominees pale in comparison. While it's hard to pick among them, Germany's "Lives of Others" and Mexico's "Pan's Labyrinth" are favored. The academy will honor itself by choosing either of these wondrous and challenging works of art. "Labyrinth" has the edge because the box-office is surprisingly strong for a subtitled film and because it is up for six Oscars, a sure sign that academy members really like it. But how could they not love "Lives" as well?
Will win: "Pan's Labyrinth."
Will win: "The Lives of Others."
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
It's a close race between the souped-up "Cars" and the tapping "Happy Feet." Here's one category where the kids should get a vote.
Will win: "Cars."
Should win: "Cars."
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Another unusually strong category. But unless the Bush gang has figured out some way to rig the vote, Al Gore should emerge victorious for telling the truth about global warming.
Will win: "An Inconvenient Truth."
Should win: "An Inconvenient Truth."
Additional categories:

ORIGINAL SCORE
Will win and should win: "Babel."

ORIGINAL SONG
Will win and should win: "Listen" from "Dreamgirls."

COSTUME
Will win and should win:"Dreamgirls."