Will undecideds affect Iowa caucus outcome?

One staunch Democrat says Hillary Clinton isn’t electable, so he’s looking at Barack Obama.

MCCLATCHY NEWSPAPERS

NEWTON, Iowa — Karin Wilhelm plans to list all the presidential candidates and their issue positions on a chart before she goes to vote in Thursday’s Iowa caucus.

Sharon Heidt spent part of her vacation listening to Barack Obama. Jennifer Hardman is trying to figure out who’s the most committed conservative. George McDaniel can’t tell you exactly how he’s going to make up his mind.

They’re all part of an army of likely Iowa caucus voters who are still undecided about their choices for president — and what’s maddening for the campaigns is that there’s no easy way to categorize these people.

The McClatchy-MSNBC poll released Sunday found that 8 percent of Democrats and 12 percent of Republican likely voters in Iowa are still unsure. If they shift in big numbers to a single candidate, which has happened in the past, they could give someone a big win and momentum into the rush of primaries ahead.

But these folks are hard to figure out.

“All kinds of things could push them over the edge for someone,” said Brad Coker, managing director of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, which conducted the survey.

If there’s any consistent thread to how the undecideds are thinking, it’s that “they want to be right,” said McDaniel, a Des Moines retiree.

They are serious voters, and they want to be sure they’re picking the most electable and competent person.

There’s another common link: “This is a state where people like to play their cards close to the vest,” said McDaniel, “and they don’t like the idea that the media might seem to tell them what to do.”

So Joanna Braucht, a Des Moines mortgage company representative, is looking for a Democrat who can win. But just what, she wonders, constitutes electability?

“I’m afraid [former North Carolina Sen.] John Edwards can’t win the primaries, but he would have national support in the general election,” she said. “But [Illinois Sen.] Barack Obama can win the primaries, but not the general.”

Alex Kron, a college student, has a similar quandary, but his equation involves New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton.

She’s not electable, he frets, and he wants a Democrat. So he attended an Obama rally one day last week, listened intently, and walked away saying, “I’m considering him.”

Republicans operate the same way. Chip Racheter, a Pella student, headed for Ottumwa last week to hear former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and showed up at the Smokey Row coffee shop in Pella to see former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.

Racheter’s assessment: “Huckabee took more questions, and there seemed to be more applause.”

For all their searching for some political epiphany, lots of undecided voters search with issue checklists.

Laura Crowley of Des Moines is interested in policy on alternative fuels, and likes Clinton’s proposals, but also finds Edwards’ domestic views impressive.

Linda Peacock, a Des Moines registered nurse, is studying candidate views on the Medicare Advantage program, which includes extra benefits beyond Medicare. She sees the program as badly flawed.

“I probably won’t figure this out until right before the caucus,” Peacock said.