NFL Combine helps, but draft relies on feel, instinct

Drills and tests can't always tell you who will be a good pro player.
KNIGHT RIDDER NEWSPAPERS
INDIANAPOLIS -- The NFL Combine serves some valuable purposes.
It helps scouts differentiate between Hofstra's Marques Colston and Monmouth's Miles Austin. It shows who's faster, Howard's Antoine Bethea or Marshall's Chris Hawkins. It reveals the true height and weight of Paul McQuistan. It allows the media to figure out who the heck Paul McQuistan is. (An offensive lineman from Weber State, if you didn't know.)
Still, after a couple days hanging around the periphery of the combine, some of it seems superfluous.
In judging the most accomplished college players, doesn't it come down to feel?
Glean what you will from 40-yard dash times, flexibility drills, vertical leaps and strength measurements. Issue personality tests. Analyze the data. Fret.
Feel still carries NFL draft day.
Feel explains why Indianapolis Colts President Bill Polian picked Peyton Manning over Ryan Leaf in the most famous example of intuitive drafting.
Feel rules as the reason most people would have no problem picking USC quarterback Matt Leinart if he didn't throw a single football in Indy (as he chose not to) or at his "Pro Day" (where he will display his arm).
"I'm just a winner," Leinart said, asked to describe his strengths. "I'm a Tom Brady type. He's a winner."
Media flak
Leinart, teammate Reggie Bush and Texas quarterback Vince Young caught some flak during the combine. Media critics questioned why those players could smugly decline to participate in the RCA Dome workouts, deferring their scrutiny to their own times and locations.
The flak was undeserved, the outrage overblown. Leinart, Bush and Young earned the right to pass on the assembly-line inspection in Indy by virtue of their virtuoso college careers. It's not like they're going to escape the microscope. They're just moving it to a more comfortable location.
"Teams have been questioning my arm strength for three years," Leinart said. "I'm more mobile than people think. ...I think I'm deceptively fast. I have deceptive speed. I know I can throw and run better than people think."
For Leinart's critics, here's a question: What were you watching?
Did you miss Leinart's 37-2 record as a starter and two national championship claims? Did you forget the clutch pass of the regular season when Notre Dame was on the verge of ruining USC's winning streak? Did you overlook the fact that he served as the most effective leader in the country for three seasons?
Leinart referenced Brady, and it's a good comparison -- to an extent.
It's true, we don't know if Leinart can direct an NFL team with the savvy he's shown as a college player. But it's a fairly decent indicator. Like Brady, he might or might not be considered the best at his craft, but none of his peers can claim more championships.
Highlight reel
Take Bush, too. You may not know his 40 time and probably don't care. Look at the film of how he separates from defensive backs who have the angle on him. Look at how he spins away from sure tackles. Watch how he reads blocks and anticipates holes on a big return.
He'll run the 40 and give the scouts their times on his turf and his time. Doesn't matter. There's track speed and there's game speed, and Bush displayed, time and again on the biggest stages, that he has game speed to burn.
Maybe it's justified for scouts to require Young to show he can drop back and throw, since so much of his Texas passing game came out of the shotgun or on the run. Logic tells you he'll be able to pass even more effectively given time to set and throw, but the NFL scouts prefer a controlled environment. To them, seeing is believing. So Young will demonstrate his skills in his Austin, Texas, comfort zone.
The combine makes sense when it comes to guys like Hank Baskett of New Mexico, Garrett Mills of Tulsa or Reed Doughty of Northern Colorado. They're allowed the chance to shine where they've been overshadowed before. Some unknown players shoot up the draft chart. That's a valuable purpose for 300 players congregating in one, somewhat dehumanizing evaluation.
But, how much more can Leinart, Bush and Young prove?
Some people compare the combine to a job interview or an audition. These cream of the crop players have been auditioning and answering questions for three years now.
Do they have a feel for success? Ultimately, that's the most important question for draft day. More tests aren't really needed to figure out the answer.