In off-election year, Pa. has exciting races

The state is a mix of urban and rural and various ethnicities.
NARBERTH, Pa. (AP) -- If only Punxsutawney Phil predicted elections, too.
In an off-presidential election year when many races are considered ho-hum, Pennsylvania is the exception.
It's home to what's billed as the nation's premier Senate race; a governor's race pitting an incumbent governor who moonlights as a football commentator against a former NFL player; and a U.S. House race Democrats consider key in their quest to win back a majority in the House of Representatives.
Even at the state level, pundits are watching closely to see if voter outrage over a middle-of-the-night pay raise legislators gave themselves (then later rescinded) will force incumbents out of office in the Republican-controlled Legislature.
"In terms of having that mix of multiple big statewide races ... it's got a bull's-eye on it. It's going to be so competitive," said Mike DuHaime, political director of the Republican National Committee, who acknowledges he sometimes stays awake at night pondering Pennsylvania politics.
Lively campaigns
The unabashed conservative Sen. Rick Santorum, the No. 3 Senate Republican, and his leading Democratic challenger, state Treasurer Bob Casey, have been accusing each other of mudslinging for months. Casey has the advantage of name recognition from his late governor father, and is leading in the polls by double digits. The two are expected to spend a combined $50 million, which would make it the state's most expensive Senate race.
The governor's race heated up Jan. 4 when former Pittsburgh Steelers player and sports commentator Lynn Swann announced he was running in the Republican primary, in which he now has no opponent. If elected, he would be the state's first black governor.
Democratic Gov. Ed Rendell, the former Philadelphia mayor who does post-Eagles game commentary, has raised considerably more money than Swann and led him by double digits in the latest Quinnipiac University poll.
"I spent 29 years at ABC Sports. Ed Rendell has spent the last three years as governor, and he wants to be a broadcaster. Let's give Ed Rendell what he wants," Swann said in announcing his candidacy.
Great diversity
Pennsylvania is full of political contradictions, which historically makes for close races. It has half-a-million more registered Democrats than Republicans, but they will vote for Republicans -- as evidenced by the state's two Republican senators -- and has some of the most conservative abortion laws in the country.
The state, however, proved elusive for President Bush. He visited Pennsylvania 44 times in his 2004 re-election bid -- more than any other state -- but lost the state to Democratic candidate John Kerry.
Democratic consultant James Carville was said to have muttered of the state's diversity that Pennsylvania is Philadelphia and Pittsburgh with Alabama in between. It's that mix of rural vs. urban issues as well as ethnic groups and industries that make the state difficult to master politically.
Republican Rep. Jim Gerlach noted in his 6th District in the Philadelphia region that he represents affluent suburbs, growing neighborhoods, Amish farms and old steel towns. He barely defeated attorney Lois Murphy in 2004, and Democrats have targeted him again in his rematch with her.
He said television ad time has already been reserved in the Philadelphia media market for the weeks leading up to the November election.
"I suspect there's going to be a tremendous amount of mailings, a tremendous amount of TV ads, a lot of grass-roots activity, so it's almost going to feel like a presidential year in Pennsylvania because of the number of competitive races," Gerlach said.
Other targeted districts
In addition to Gerlach, Democrats are also targeting in the Philadelphia suburbs Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick, a one-term incumbent in the 8th District, and 10-term Rep. Curt Weldon in the 7th District. All three districts went for Kerry in 2004.
In the 8th District, Patrick Murphy, an Iraq War veteran, and Andy Warren, a former Republican Bucks County commissioner who recently switched parties, are running in the Democratic primary.
Weldon faces recently retired three-star Vice Adm. Joseph A. Sestak Jr., who once appeared before him during a Capitol Hill hearing, and has no primary opponent.
As she campaigns against Gerlach, Lois Murphy said there is already buzz about her race and others in the state. Rep. Rahm Emanuel, D-Ill., chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, recently announced a new Web site with Murphy by his side in Bryn Mawr.
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