There's little anticipation for Microsoft's Vista

Businesses have been slow to adopt Microsoft's new operating system.
SACRAMENTO BEE
After five years, 50 million lines of computer code and billions of dollars in development costs, Microsoft Corp. is rolling out Vista -- its long-awaited computer operating system. But how quickly it will be embraced by businesses and consumers remains to be seen.
If Vista's debut generates only tepid interest over the next 12 months, it could have serious financial consequences not only for Microsoft, but for much of the computer hardware industry.
"If Vista misses, it will have dire implications for the processor companies [such as Intel Corp.], the computer makers and the rest," said Silicon Valley technology analyst Rob Enderle. "The operating system and Office [software] are still the main revenue engines for Microsoft ... and a new operating system drives a lot of hardware sales."
Microsoft released its business version Nov. 30, and its consumer product hits store shelves Jan. 30.
Boasting notable improvements over its predecessor, Windows XP, Vista incorporates a sleeker look, better security and many user-friendly features until now found only in Apple's OS-X operating system.
IDC, a market research firm in suburban Boston, predicts the company will sell 90 million units worldwide by the end of 2007, with consumers being the early adopters.
So far, buzz has been muted.
"Right now demand is relatively low," said Enderle, who has been using Vista for several weeks and judges it a big improvement over Windows XP. It should have as much anticipation as there was for Windows 95," he said, referring to the first Microsoft OS that most considered to be truly user-friendly, launched more than a decade ago.
At the moment, Microsoft isn't aggressively hyping Vista, said Michael Gartenberg, an analyst with Jupiter Research in New York.
"I think Microsoft has been keeping the volume down because they didn't want to discourage people from buying PCs during the holiday season," he said.
Indeed, to encourage people to buy now, many computer makers are already labeling their products as "Vista Ready" and promising free Vista upgrades for PCs purchased before Jan. 30. But that wasn't a priority for Amardeep Singh, who browsed the computer aisles at CompUSA in Sacramento, Calif., this week, looking for a fast machine to replace his 8-year-old desktop. "For what I do day to day, Windows XP is fine for me," said the civil engineer.
To counter that kind of attitude, Microsoft is expected to launch a marketing blitz closer to the Jan. 30 launch of the consumer version, including promotional events in 50 cities by the end of March.
"Once we get into the post-holiday season, you will be hearing a lot more about it," Gartenberg said.
Enderle said the lack of anticipation could also be traced to the highly publicized delays and the decisions by Microsoft not to include some previously touted technical and security features that proved too difficult to implement.
Businesses
Even though the business version has been available for more than a month, few experts are surprised that companies aren't rushing to upgrade.
According to IDC, Vista will account for only 35 percent of new OS deployment in business in 2007, but will climb to 80 percent in 2008.
The cost of upgrading computers to handle Vista's hardware demands, training employees on the new system and coping with unexpected bugs all dictate a go-slow approach for business. In general, businesses aren't inclined to switch operating systems until they upgrade their computers, usually on a three-year cycle.
According to Gartner Inc., Vista computers won't outnumber Windows XP machines in the business world until 2010.
Tim Burke, chief executive of Sacramento-based Quest Technology, which installs computer systems for businesses, said his customers are taking a measured approach.
"I have a few clients who are doing tests on it, but nobody is saying they have to have it in January or February," Burke said.