North-South vulnerable. South deals.
North-South vulnerable. South deals.
NORTH
J 5
10 4
A K 8 6 4 2
J 6 5
WEST EAST
A K 8 10 6 4
A 9 5 3 Void
J 9 5 3 Q 10 7
8 4 K Q 10 9 7 3 2
SOUTH
Q 9 7 3 2
K Q J 8 7 6 2
Void
A
The bidding:
SOUTH WEST NORTH EAST
1 Pass 2 3
4 Pass Pass Pass
Opening lead: King of
Probabilities can show which of two distributions is more likely. That does not mean the better choice is bound to succeed, as South learned to his cost.
North responded with an understrength two diamonds, intending to show this by rebidding three diamonds at his next turn. He never got the chance.
West led the king of spades and shifted to the eight of clubs. Declarer won and led a low spade toward the jack. West won with the ace and reverted to a club. Declarer ruffed and then trumped a spade in dummy with the ten of hearts. East followed but, when the defender next discarded a club on the heart lead, declarer had to concede two heart tricks -- down one.
South bewailed his fate: "After all, a 4-2 spade break is five times more likely than a 4-0 heart distribution!" Correct as far as it goes, but declarer could have discovered for sure what the chances are.
After ruffing the club at trick four, declarer should lead the king of hearts, and the trump distribution is revealed. If West wins and returns a heart, declarer wins in dummy and cashes the ace and king of diamonds to discard two losing spades. If West ducks, declarer must rely on a 3-3 spade break and just continue with a trump to the ten. Either way, declarer loses only two spade tricks and a trump.
This column is written by Tannah Hirsch and Omar Sharif. For information about Charles Goren's newsletter for bridge players, call (800) 788-1225 or write Goren Bridge Letter, P.O. Box 4410, Chicago, Ill. 60680.
& copy;2006, Tribune Media Services
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