A Berlin tightrope

Tuesday, August 29, 2006 Chicago Tribune: A strange thing happened after Angela Merkel squeezed Gerhard Schroeder out of power last fall in an election that was as bitter and as close as the U.S. presidential race in 2000. Her popularity soared. Germans took to Merkel, though she often comes across as a dour technocrat. The honeymoon didn't last, though. Merkel's support has fallen below 40 percent, according to a recent poll. Support for her party, the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU), stands at just 31 percent, closely followed by the Social Democratic Party (SPD) at 30 percent. In the beginning of this year, the SPD trailed the CDU by at least 14 percentage points in polls. Merkel seems to be experiencing what Schroeder faced: The German public is impatient for evidence that the nation will thrive under reunification of East and West, and that the government will resolve some long-term financial problems. Merkel may help to create public frustration because she tends to be super-cautious. But she can point to some achievements. She has largely repaired relations with the United States, which were deeply strained when Schroeder was chancellor. She saved a compromise on the new European Union budget. She has shown an independent, self-confident attitude toward Russia; Schroeder at times seemed far too cozy with the increasingly autocratic President Vladimir Putin. Social welfare system Germany, though, has not made much progress on deep problems with the social welfare system, government spending and unemployment. Merkel came to power by agreeing to a grand coalition with Schroeder's Social Democrats. So any substantial change in domestic policy will face political opposition from some faction she needs. And like U.S. voters, Germans want these problems fixed — but aren't necessarily going to be happy with how that will be done. Many Germans aren't happy with Merkel's plans to increase Germany's value-added tax to 19 percent from 16 percent. Perhaps she will get a boost from news last week that Germany's economy grew by 0.9 percent in the second quarter. That may sound anemic, but it was the best quarter Germany has seen in five years. Not that she will have a ready chorus to cheer the news. Several powerful state governors in her own party are waiting for Merkel to falter. She's not part of their old network — she's a woman, and she's from the East.