Monday, August 21, 2006
Monday, August 21, 2006 By JOHN HALL MEDIA GENERAL NEWS SERVICE WASHINGTON — From the Persian Gulf to the Mediterranean, the Shiite Crescent was jumping last week. Triumphant anti-Israel leaders of Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, Iran's chest-thumping president, and the made-in-the-USA power structure of democratic Iraq were crowing that Israel had been beaten. King Abdullah of Jordan, a staunch U.S. ally in the region, saw it coming two years ago and coined the phrase "Shiite Crescent." His warning was largely directed at Sunni Muslim nations facing Iran, and his message didn't get much attention here. But the pieces of the young leader's prophecy are starting to drop into place. Abdullah's vision was the emergence of a new power center that would come to dominate the region. The Shiite Crescent comprised Iran's Shiite-dominated government, the new Shiite regime taking control after the ouster of Saddam Hussein in Iraq and the Hezbollah-dominated Shiite "state within a state" in southern Lebanon. The cease-fire just declared following Hezbollah's brief war with Israel left southern Lebanon in ruins and destroyed much of Hezbollah's arms cache. But Hezbollah's leadership remains strong. And most Shiite Muslims, as well as the rest of the Arab world, are celebrating what they call a victory over Israel's much more powerful and modern army and air force. Iran's deep pockets could resupply Hezbollah with arms to keep attacking Israel unless a U.N. force being formed to move into southern Lebanon is more aggressive than others have been to stop the traffic through Syria. Hezbollah is vowing to resist any effort to disarm it. Even if Hezbollah does turn over its remaining rockets and guns — a doubtful possibility — its personnel are not likely to move north of the Litani River 13 miles from the border with Israel. They will be lodged with the Shiites as they help them rebuild damaged homes while using seemingly unlimited cash from oil-rich Iran and making themselves popular. Flow of arms Thus is cemented a tie between this radical group and the ordinary Shiite people living on Israel's border. Even if this cease-fire holds, in a few months or perhaps a few more years, the flow of arms to Hezbollah could resume, this time with a far more deadly cycle of violence. Iran, the supplier, has longer-range missiles that could hit Tel Aviv and, potentially, nuclear weapons. The Shiites, themselves, are no more a sinister force than their Muslim counterparts, the Sunnis, are. It is sectarian governments, like Iran's, which have spawned militias like Hezbollah, made up of fanatics. There have been some recent signs that President Bush is troubled by the direction of the new Shiite-dominated government in Baghdad, particularly after its sympathetic reaction to Hezbollah. Rallies in Iraq denouncing Israel and supporting Hezbollah are giving some members of Congress pause as they authorize billions more to send U.S. troops and equipment to prop up this government on the brink of civil war. Play one against another Some in the administration privately had hoped to use Shiite Crescent phobia, at least part of it, to play Muslims off against each other. The belief in some quarters had been that Sunni Muslim nations such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Jordan would become alarmed at Shiite power. There was even some hope that they would join a United Nations effort to pressure Iran to stop supplying Hezbollah. But nothing unites the Arabs and Muslims like Israeli military action. The key to breaking Iran's grip on the region is Syria. It is the avenue for most of the arms trafficking to Hezbollah as well as some terrorist customers in Iraq. Syria is a secular state whose Shiite minority is kept under control by Baathist rulers, mostly Sunnis. Helping Hezbollah receive weapons is largely a favor to Iran with economic benefits attached. If real U.S. and European Union economic pressure were applied on Syria, the equation might be changed. France could influence how this turns out. It is expected to be one of the leaders of an international force in southern Lebanon, along with the Lebanese army. The question is whether French President Jacques Chirac will make up his mind before the cease-fire ends. John Hall is the senior Washington correspondent of Media General News Service. Distributed by Scripps Howard.