American skating prospects on thin ice
Most troublesome are the absences of Michelle Kwan and Sasha Cohen.
ASSOCIATED PRESS
The top choice for a U.S. figure skating medal at the 2006 Olympics might not even be eligible for the games.
Early in the season, when interest in the sport perks up because of the showcase the Olympics will provide, American prospects for Turin are bleak. Sure, only one Grand Prix event and two pro-ams have been held, but consider:
*Michelle Kwan and Sasha Cohen, by far the most accomplished American skaters, are sidelined by injuries.
*Tim Goebel, the 2002 Olympic bronze medalist, can't stay on his feet and has no idea why.
*No pairs couple is within a throw triple axel of the Chinese or Russians.
Indeed, right now, ice dancers Tanith Belbin and Ben Agosto are the best the United States has on ice. And because Belbin is a native Canadian, they won't be at Turin unless attempts to speed up her quest for citizenship are successful before the end of the year.
Most troublesome are the absences of Kwan and Cohen. Kwan has almost no experience in the points scoring system now in use -- her only major appearance under it was in this year's world championships, where she was a disappointing fourth, her first non-medal at worlds in a decade. Unless she makes a late entry into a Grand Prix event after dropping out of Cup of China on Tuesday, her next competition will be at nationals in January.
Lack of exposure for Kwan
That means international judges won't have seen Kwan's programs and she won't have gotten the necessary feedback to make them battle-tough for the Olympics.
Granted, Kwan is such a clutch competitor that she probably will win her ninth straight (and 10th overall) nationals. But the Olympics haven't supplied her most glorious moments.
Cohen looked great at a pro-am in St. Paul, Minn., early in October. Then she injured a side muscle and dropped out of Skate America.
While Cohen has had more success in Grand Prixs and under the code of points, including second-place showings at the last two worlds, she does have a history of injuries. She also is not exactly a sure thing in the big events, never having beaten Kwan at nationals and falling out of a spot on the podium at Salt Lake City.
There are no other U.S. women likely to contend in Turin, but there are plenty of non-Americans who can handle a rusty Kwan and an underachieving Cohen: Russia's Irina Slutskaya and Elena Sokolova; Italy's Carolina Kostner; and a slew of Japanese skaters.
Two-time U.S. champion Johnny Weir has struggled putting together a program deemed difficult enough by the judges. He had to throw out much of the footwork for his free skate routine in late September, a huge setback in his preparation, and then he wound up only fourth at the St. Paul pro-am.
Scoring system flap
Therein lies another problem for U.S. skaters: They don't seem to be getting accurate feedback from U.S. judges and officials on how difficult their elements are. When the men's champion has to scrap some of his program because it's too easy, that's not just an indictment of his planning. It raises questions about how familiar the entire American skating community is with the scoring system.
Indeed, the United States has not yet used the code of points at nationals, although it will do so in January. Is that too late, considering the rest of the world, in particular the likely top challengers in Turin, are accustomed to it?
Quite likely.
"It's all math now," said renowned coach Frank Carroll, who guided Kwan to the top and now works with Evan Lysacek. "It's unfortunate that it is more math than skating and you lose a little of musicality and pleasure of watching it. So why do anything more than what is being scored?
"But it's what we have."
For now, the most promising of the U.S. men is Lysacek, who was second at Skate America, beating France's formidable Brian Joubert but losing to Japan's Daisuke Takahashi, who could be a rising star in skating. Lysacek, third in the world this year, needs some heavy-duty additions to his "Grease" long program, including tougher footwork, before he can be compared with Russia's Evgeni Plushenko and world champion Stephane Lambiel of Switzerland.
"I definitely feel more pressure to excel than what I felt last year," Lysacek admitted. "This year, I have something to lose."
So do all the American skaters. In the history of the Winter Olympics, only in 1908 and 1936 did the United States not medal. It wouldn't be shocking to see it happen again.
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