KNIGHT RIDDER NEWSPAPERS

KNIGHT RIDDER NEWSPAPERS
HE EMMYS MIGHT NEVER BE the same after the 56th edition.
The broadcast networks have been chafing at the annual dominance of HBO, so much so that the Television Academy has begun looking into ways to even the playing field.
The Emmys air tonight at 8 on ABC with Garry Shandling as host.
If the broadcasters were upset before, they are liable to be livid by midnight. It is conceivable HBO could run the table in the most prestigious categories -- best drama and comedy series, outstanding movie and miniseries, as well as the top acting awards in those fields.
While a sweep is improbable, HBO surely will garner the majority of the big prizes.
The broadcasters' ire is only partially a case of sour grapes; they have some legitimate gripes.
HBO and other premium channels have freedoms beyond the liberties in nudity and language.
No program has ever been honored solely because it showed flesh or used naughty words.
If this were the case, HBO's gratuitously profane "Deadwood" would be a sure winner in its genre. It's not even a nominee.
What's more significant
Far more significant is the ability of subscription channels to tackle controversial subject matter, which would be taboo on advertiser-supported networks. The likes of HBO and Showtime also permit programs to run as long -- or short -- as needed to tell the story, rather than dictate about 21 minutes per half-hour.
Premium channel movies also don't have to build to a miniclimax three or four times an hour in front of commercial breaks. Perhaps most significantly, the budgets for premium channel projects are substantially more generous than on a broadcast network. Forcing commercial network productions to compete against HBO is as unfair as asking HBO to compete against big-ticket theatrical films.
In other words, this isn't a broadcast vs. cable controversy. It's an issue of commercial networks (which includes basic cable) vs. premium channels. If there is to be a change, that is likely how the categories would be divided.
But that's for the future. This is how the awards are likely to shake out this year.
UDrama Series: If "The Sopranos" isn't finally recognized as what it has been since its premiere -- the finest drama of its time, let alone any single season -- the Emmys are invalid, a sham never to be taken seriously again. "The West Wing," which has won four times as much for its Hollywood-friendly politics as artistic merit, should not even have been nominated after a lackluster season. "CSI: Crime Scene Investigation" would only have a shot absent "The Sopranos." "24" didn't win when "The Sopranos" was on hiatus, and this season, its third, was its third best. "Joan of Arcadia" is in just to fill out the field.
Perhaps the fix is in. The Academy distributes a fact sheet to TV writers -- and it already has "The West Wing" winning again this year.
In the drama category
ULead Actor, Drama: At least the Academy gets this right. James Gandolfini has won the last three times he has been nominated and any other result would be only slightly less ludicrous than "The Sopranos" not winning as outstanding series. James Spader and Kiefer Sutherland can take heart that next year they will have a legitimate shot with "The Sopranos" on an almost two-year hiatus. Martin Sheen didn't win during the years "The West Wing" swept almost anything. Anthony LaPaglia does a fine job but he, too, looks like category filler.
ULead Actress, Drama: Edie Falco was last year's surest thing after the gut-wrenching marriage-breakup episode that ended season four of "The Sopranos." She didn't have an opportunity as powerful this past season, but even mundane Falco outshines the rest of the pack, which includes Jennifer Garner, Mariska Hargitay, Amber Tamblyn and former winner Allison Janney.
USupporting Actor, Drama: Michael Imperioli has been steady and solid but Steve Buscemi, in what will be his only year on "The Sopranos," jumped off the screen in every episode. "The Sopranos" duo outshines John Spencer, Victor Garber and Brad Dourif.
USupporting Actress, Drama: If voters were paying attention, Robin Weigert was terrific as Calamity Jane in "Deadwood." However, the slow-developing western series didn't generate much buzz except for its profanity, and that will work against her. Academy darling Tyne Daly can never be dismissed, nor can Stockard Channing and Janel Moloney of "The West Wing" or Drea de Matteo of "The Sopranos," since those two series have dominated Emmy nights. Since Weigert is unlikely and there aren't many other places for "The West Wing" to be recognized, Moloney could become the latest "West Wing"-er to be saluted by the Academy.
Comic relief
UComedy Series: "Curb Your Enthusiasm" deserves to win and a "Sex and the City" triumph would not be a miscarriage of justice. However, the feeling is voters are going to put so many check marks next to HBO nominees, they'll look elsewhere in this category. "Arrested Development" is the best of the rest, but its anorexic ratings work against it. "Will & amp; Grace" has seen its best days, so the Academy, which loved "Raymond" last year, likely will again.
ULead Actor, Comedy: No disrespect intended to a wonderful actor and human being, but the late John Ritter does not belong in this category. He was in only three episodes of "8 Simple Rules" before his untimely passing and none was of award caliber. Ritter was such a class act, he would be embarrassed by the Academy's show of sympathy. The voters also showed their soft sides by bestowing going-away nominations on Kelsey Grammer and Matt LeBlanc. Tony Shalhoub was a worthy winner last year and would be again, but absent an HBO backlash, Larry David of "Curb Your Enthusiasm" should win his first Emmy as an actor.
ULead Actress, Comedy: Fans of "Sex and the City" in the Academy might hold it against Sarah Jessica Parker that she almost single-handedly ended the series. Jennifer Aniston and Patricia Heaton have already been recognized in this category and nobody paid attention to "The Bonnie Hunt Show," so it's time that Jane Kaczmarek of "Malcolm in the Middle," up for the fifth straight year, gets her chance to give an acceptance speech.
USupporting Actor, Comedy: Peter Boyle is moving into Susan Lucci Land. This is the sixth straight year he has been nominated and he remains the only member of the "Everybody Loves Raymond" ensemble not to win. The field is loaded, with three past winners -- Brad Garrett, David Hyde Pierce, Sean Hayes -- and Jeffrey Tambor, who also was nominated four times for "The Larry Sanders Show." The toughest hurdle is his "Raymond" colleague Garrett, but this is Boyle's year.
USupporting Actress, Comedy: The three "Sex and the City" contenders -- Kristin Davis, Kim Cattrall and Cynthia Nixon -- are so equal they will probably cancel out each other, leaving it to Doris Roberts ("Raymond") and Megan Mullally ("Will & amp; Grace"). Age before beauty: The veterans in the Academy will give Roberts a consecutive triple.
Other categories
UMiniseries: "Angels in America" was landmark television, not only Emmy caliber but Hall of Fame worthy. "Angels" is a virtual lock in this category and it should win every one of the acting awards as well. "Prime Suspect 6," "Horatio Hornblower," "Traffic: The Miniseries" and "American Family" picked a bad year to be good.
UTV Movie: This is another area where Hollywood can make a political statement, by voting the trophy to "The Reagans." It would be a joke but if the Academy must vote its politics, this is the place to do it, since the rest of the field -- "And Starring Pancho Villa as Himself," "Ike: Countdown to D-Day," "The Lion in Winter" and "Something the Lord Made" -- is the weakest in memory. "Something the Lord Made" is the most worthy.
UReality-Competition Program: This category was created to recognize "Survivor," but the Academy couldn't overlook the superior production values of "The Amazing Race" last year, and shouldn't this year, either. "American Idol," "Survivor" and "The Apprentice" will have to settle for superior ratings. That "Last Comic Standing" got an Emmy nomination is funnier than anything heard on the show.
UVariety, Music or Comedy Series: The name of the exercise is Primetime Emmy Awards. Did it occur to anyone that not one of the nominees -- "The Late Show With David Letterman" (which always wins), "Chappelle's Show," "The Daily Show With John Stewart," "Late Night With Conan O'Brien" and "Saturday Night Live" -- airs in prime time? Oh well, this won't be the most ridiculous thing to happen on Emmy night.