Monday, November 29, 2004
The president has made it clear that Social Security is his top domestic issue.
LOS ANGELES TIMES
WASHINGTON -- If President Bush wants to push his plan to overhaul Social Security through Congress during his second term, he will probably have to do something he rarely did during his first term: Get his hands dirty.
To revamp the politically popular retirement program, many allies say, Bush will have to offer detailed proposals to Congress and engage in a broad public campaign to justify the change and its cost. And he will have to ride herd on legislators to ensure they do not veer from his central goal of shoring up Social Security by allowing younger workers to invest some of their payroll taxes in private accounts.
"It's going to take a lot of personal involvement and a lot of political capital," said Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis., a leading proponent of private retirement accounts.
That would be a big change in the way Bush deals with Congress. Typically, even on issues as important as last year's Medicare overhaul, Bush has conveyed only broad goals and principles, left it to Congress' Republican leaders to work out details. He has weighed in heavily only at the end to get wayward Republicans behind him.
The risks of that approach were amply illustrated this month when rebellious House Republicans blocked an overhaul of U.S. intelligence operations that the White House backed -- despite last minute lobbying by Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney. The seeds for defeat were sown, lawmakers say, in Bush's failure to engage early and to convey convincingly his commitment to the bill.
Social Security will be different, Republicans say, because Bush's heart is unquestionably in the issue. He has made clear that it is his top domestic priority. Senior White House aides are already consulting members of Congress and conservative activists, weighing options and preparing for early action.
Midterm elections
House Republicans -- who will all face re-election in 2006 -- may be the toughest to sell on tackling Social Security. Many fear the issue will be used against them in the midterm elections, which historically have been perilous for the president's party in a second term.
"No more than a double handful of Republicans would be truly excited about walking into this particular fight," said a senior House Republican. "As a political issue, it's been used against Republicans for a quarter century now."
Rep. Jim Kolbe, R-Ariz., another advocate of Social Security overhaul, conceded that the political anxiety is so high that, even with a giant push from the White House, the idea may not fly.
"This is going to be really, really heavy lifting," said Kolbe. "It's technical. It's difficult to understand. And it is so prone to demagoguery."
At issue is the long-term financial stability of Social Security, the retirement program funded through payroll taxes, which will be strained when the baby boom begins to retire. As soon as 2019, the program will pay out more in benefits than it collects in taxes. By 2052, the program's trust fund is projected to have exhausted its surplus.