Vindicator poll: Many think Kerry will win nomination

About half of those polled in the unscientific survey think President Bush can't be beat.
By DAVID SKOLNICK
VINDICATOR POLITICS WRITER
YOUNGSTOWN -- U.S. Sen. John Kerry isn't just the comeback candidate in Iowa.
An informal poll taken by The Vindicator of about 60 people through e-mails and in-person interviews shows that the Massachusetts senator is the candidate most people think will capture the Democratic nomination. Kerry, who received 19 votes, was followed by former Vt. Gov. Howard Dean, who got 15 votes.
Retired U.S. Army Gen. Wesley Clark finished third with five votes, followed by U.S. Sen. John Edwards with three votes. The rest of the votes went to "no choice," except for three for U.S. Rep. Dick Gephardt, who pulled out of the race last week, and one for U.S. Sen. Joseph Lieberman.
Until his victory in last week's Iowa caucus, many political experts had dismissed Kerry as a serious contender.
Small showing at caucus
Kerry also had problems locally.
At the 17th Congressional District's Democratic presidential caucus, Kerry had the smallest number of supporters, and only two people ran for seven open delegate spots to represent him at the Democratic National Convention.
But people in this area and nationwide are taking Kerry seriously and view him as the front-runner, a position he had lost to Dean in recent months.
"Of the leading candidates, he is the one who I think will appeal to the most people, as the most likable," Robert B. Woods, a Youngstown Democrat, said about Kerry. "It's still a high school popularity contest."
John Mascioli, a Warren Democrat, explained why Kerry will win the party's nomination this way: "He talks pretty good."
Susan Savastuk, a Youngstown Democrat, said Kerry is her candidate because "of his political and military experience. He thinks before he speaks and he looks presidential."
Going on gut feelings
Some people just have a gut feeling about a certain candidate.
"I think Howard Dean will get the nomination simply because he has the best feel," said Chris Wilson, a Mineral Ridge Democrat. "I don't think the other candidates are strong enough -- please note that I did not say they are unworthy of the nomination -- to compete with the Dean media machine."
William Simpson, an Austintown Democrat, added: "I'm hoping Dean is the nominee. If I can believe everything he says, he knows and understands the needs of the people."
About half of the people who participated in the informal poll through e-mails and in-person interviews identified themselves as Democrats. About 20 called themselves either independents or said they aren't interested in political labels. The rest identified themselves as Republicans.
Does it matter?
While local Democrats pick their favorites, they are split as to whether it actually matters. About half of those polled don't think any Democratic candidate can defeat President Bush. Most local independents in the poll don't think Bush is beatable, and nearly every Republican thinks Bush is guaranteed an Election Day victory.
George M. Kesner, a Boardman Democrat, said Bush "has made poor decisions in regards to the Iraqi war, his current stand on illegal immigrants purely for votes, and his proposal to spend billions in space while we have millions of U.S. citizens who are struggling with health care costs."
Even so, Kesner, who favors Dean as the Democratic nominee, said none Bush's challengers can beat the president.
Deborah Curl, a Columbiana Republican, said Bush can't be beat.
"I rate Bush as one of the best presidents," she said. "He has done a good job with the economy, the war, terrorism and with leadership. He is not afraid to show he is a God-fearing man, and that is what makes him one of our greatest leaders."
Clark's chances
David Kornbau, a Washingtonville Democrat, said he thinks Dean will win the Democratic nomination, but the only challenger with a chance to defeat Bush is Clark.
"Bush will do whatever it takes in the next year to keep the economy from being an issue, will placate seniors on Social Security, and utter enough bromides on health care to keep these from becoming issues the Democrats can run on. That leaves the war and security issues for the Dems to gain any ground. Clark has the most credibility there."
Others are more optimistic.
Omar G. Jadue, an Austintown independent, said he doesn't know who will be the Democratic nominee, but Bush can be beaten.
"They must show the electorate where Bush has failed, and how they could do better," he said.
George Cataline, a Canfield independent, disagrees.
"I doubt if any Democrat could beat Bush, at least not the field I have seen so far. They are all running negative campaigns and are not facing realities. Promises, promises and never any results."
Rating Bush as president
The people polled were also asked to rate Bush as president. Republicans strongly support the president on domestic issues and foreign affairs while Democrats and independents were mixed.
"George Bush will be judged as a fairly good president after years have passed since the 9/11 incident," said Alex Snyder, a Columbiana Democrat.
Kelly Gialousis, a Campbell Democrat, criticized Bush as a poor president.
"He has broken so many campaign promises. His is not an honest, open, ethical White House as he promised it would be. Government spending is out of control, and he seems to be oblivious to that. He lied about the reasons for the war in Iraq. He responded appropriately after 9/11, but then left that mission unfinished. [Osama] bin Laden took a back seat to Saddam Hussein. As for leadership, he takes direction from the special-interest groups."
John Davis Jr., a New Middletown independent, described Bush as a good, but not great, president.
"The economy has somewhat recovered, but there's still a long way to go. The war, regardless of whether or not one supports it, has gone well. ... Overall, Bush's leadership seems to best come from those he surrounds himself with. I would hesitate to say he has done an outstanding job, but he has done an acceptable job."
Madeline J. Shanks, a Poland Republican, said Bush has done a good job and has surrounded himself with excellent advisors.
Michael Saltzer, a Solon Democrat who was in Warren on business recently, said he supports Bush's positions on the Iraqi war and terrorism, but thinks the president is clueless when it comes to domestic issues.
Campaign's important issues
The Vindicator also asked people what they think are the most important issues in the presidential campaign, with the economy/jobs, the Iraqi war/terrorism and education being the clear favorites.
"This war is a big campaign issue because we need to get out of there as soon as possible, not years and many more deaths from now," said Keith Hipple of Youngstown, who describes himself as having a strong Republican background, but isn't affiliated with either party. "Our education system is a true crisis and has been for decades. Something must be done to help us try and catch up with other countries whose young adults are so far ahead of ours in everything."
Andrea Peace, a Warren Democrat, said education and ending the war in Iraq are the two most important issues to her.
"As a mother, I'm very interested in improving the education system," she said. "As for Iraq. I'm done with the war. Too many innocent people are dying. We need to get out now."
skolnick@vindy.com