Thursday, October 31, 2002
One elections director says his 27 percent to 28 percent voter-turnout estimate is probably too optimistic.
By DAVID SKOLNICK
VINDICATOR POLITICS WRITER
YOUNGSTOWN -- Election officials in the Mahoning and Shenango valleys expect less than half of those registered to vote to actually cast ballots Tuesday.
The most optimistic is Marlene Gabriel, Lawrence County's Bureau of Registration and Elections director, who is predicting a turnout of 56 percent in her county.
Turnout will be strong there, she says, because of the Pennsylvania gubernatorial race and a ballot referendum to change the county's form of government.
Also expecting decent turnout Tuesday is Norma Williams, director of the Trumbull County Board of Elections. She is predicting a turnout of 55 percent of eligible voters in her county. But that projection is lower than the last three gubernatorial election years, she said.
'General apathy'
"There's a general apathy," Williams said. "Voter turnout will be down even with the hot races. It's easy to register, but it's tough to get them to come out to vote."
It's too easy to register, said Jim Bennington, Mercer County's Bureau of Registration and Elections director. The number of registered voters is up from previous years because it's simple to register, he said. But an increase in registered voters does not translate into actual voters, he said.
"Despite increases in registered voters, about the same number of people who vote every year remains constant," he said.
Bennington is the least optimistic of the election officials in the five-county area. Bennington is predicting turnout between 27 percent to 28 percent in his county, and even that, he admits, is "more than we'll get, I'm sure."
Even though Bennington's projection is low, turnout statewide in Ohio and Pennsylvania is expected to be near his estimate.
Other area election officials are more hopeful than Bennington.
Mahoning County
Voter turnout in Mahoning County will be 48 percent, predicts Michael Sciortino, the county's elections board director.
"There's the potential for 55 percent turnout, but I'm not seeing some of the numbers that would generate that," Sciortino said. "Absentees are a good indicator. We have 7,600 right now, which is a few more than during the last gubernatorial election in 1998. That year, we had 49 percent turnout. I would think by now we'd have 10,000 absentees with all the issues and races on the ballot."
Turnout on Tuesday in Columbiana County is expected to be 46 percent, said John Payne, elections board director.
"There are many reasons why people don't vote," Payne said. "I go to a lot of dinners and meetings, and I haven't heard anyone interested in many races or issues. People believe there's a lock on a lot of races, particularly at the state level, so they don't bother to vote."
Mahoning Valley election officials say they expect the big draws for voters Tuesday to be the gubernatorial race between Gov. Bob Taft, a Republican, and Democrat Tim Hagan, who was born and raised in the Valley, as well as the 17th Congressional District race, the county sales tax, and to a lesser extent, the 6th Congressional District race.
skolnick@vindy.com