President risks historic slide into muck

By WILLIAM McKENZIE
DALLAS MORNING NEWS
It's always tricky to navigate the intersection of psychology and politics. You can quickly descend into quackery.
But let me offer four ways to look at George W. Bush. It may help us understand how he got to this point in his presidency, and it will show us the choices he has after tonight's State of the Union address.
Let's start with two strengths.
First, he has the courage of his convictions. No offense to the brainy Adlai Stevensons out there, but people love guts in a politician. They know he'll fight.
In this case, people know Bush is not going to back down from a brawl with Osama bin Laden. That's why a Washington Post poll recently showed that leadership remains the only issue linking voters to Republicans.
Second, he possesses a sense of fairness. The anti-Bushites may howl about this one, but look at his immigration stands. He's not out there bashing immigrants, as some other Republicans are.
From his time as Texas governor to this moment in his presidency -- with immigration reform the next big issue -- Bush always has said that he doesn't blame people for coming here. He emphasizes that point so much, in fact, that some House Republicans have urged him to cool it. He was losing members who could vote his way, one congressman told me.
If he marries that innate fairness with the courage of his convictions, we could end up with a humane immigration policy. That's going to require him to fight his party, now that even factions on the Republican National Committee oppose his desire to let immigrants enroll in a guest-worker program.
The fairness streak explains Bush's obsession with education, too. If you remember his old campaign line, he wants to fight against "the soft bigotry of low expectations."
Tougher standards
That was code for saying, "Poor kids can learn as well as rich ones." It drove his No Child Left Behind policy in 2001, and today it drives his push for tougher standards for high school kids, especially in math and science. Look for more of that this year.
Now, two serious weaknesses:
The president does not challenge his own thinking. He reads deeply into areas he likes but doesn't stretch himself beyond that. I once saw him go blank when a fellow reporter brought up urban sprawl. He clearly didn't know what it was, even though it was eating up Austin, where he lived at the time.
This flaw harmed us greatly in Iraq. We were going in one way or another, but our policy was damaged goods from the start because Bush wouldn't dig deeper into the situation on the ground or within his own government. As a result, soldiers are still dying. What a tragedy.
Next, he can suffer from blinding pride. As governor, he once wrote The Dallas Morning News complaining the paper had given him too much credit for his first legislative session. What happened to that guy?
The one we see too often these days is an iron-willed president who looks the other way when messes land on his doorstep.
Here's a perfect example: He gave the distinct impression that he'd can anyone in his administration who outed CIA agent Valerie Plame. But then Bush let Karl Rove and Scooter Libby remain on his staff, even when it became clear that they had confirmed her identity to reporters.
Fortunately, the old Bush reappeared when he finally acknowledged mistakes in planning for post-invasion Iraq. If he wants to save his presidency from ruin, he'll remember that humility pays off. Abraham Lincoln won over opponents by appreciating their point of view, not running over them.
This year could not be more pivotal for Bush. Starting with the State of the Union address, it could go one of two ways. He could build on the momentum he gained after 'fessing up and score big victories on immigration, education and other domestic issues.
Or he could give in to his worst traits and allow his administration to collapse further under the weight of Iraq and domestic division. And, if he does that, he will end up with a failed presidency of Jimmy Carter-like proportions.
It all depends whether he plays to his strengths or allows his flaws to consume him.
William McKenzie is an editorial columnist for The Dallas Morning News. Distributed by Knight Ridder/Tribune.