Oscar nomination predictions

The hardest category to pick a winner for is best actor.
By RANDY MYERS
CONTRA COSTA TIMES
The only sure thing about the upcoming Oscar nominations is that there are very few sure things.
You can be certain the name George Clooney will be blurted out more than once come Jan. 31, when contenders for the Academy Awards are unveiled. Expect, too, to hear multiple mentions for "Brokeback Mountain."
Other than that, your guess is as good as mine.
Unlike previous years, when critical favorites such as "Million Dollar Baby" and "The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King" triumphed and the Oscars followed a predictable course, this year, count on upsets and snubs aplenty. Even the critics seem less unified than usual, their end-of-the-year lists reflecting greater diversity than in the past.
The hardest category to whittle down to just five is the contest for best actor. Early in the fall, it seemed like Philip Seymour Hoffman should have started writing his acceptance speech, given his perfect turn as author Truman Capote in "Capote." But then out of nowhere, Heath Ledger knocked us out as a confused cowboy smitten with another man in "Brokeback."
Here's how the nominations are shaping up:
Best Picture
Sure things: "Brokeback Mountain," "Good Night, and Good Luck."
Other contenders: "The Constant Gardener," "Crash," "King Kong," "Match Point," "Munich," "The New World," "Syriana," "Walk the Line."
Crystal-ball gazing: Some of the movies seeking Oscar's attention tackle touchy topics, from the latent and obvious racism in "Crash" to combating terrorism with more violence in "Munich." All that high-mindedness could knock out deserving but ambitious contenders and give points to spectacular entertainment such as "King Kong" or "The Chronicles of Narnia." Even the hilarious "The 40-Year-Old Virgin" could pop up, having proved itself a box-office and critical smash.
Since Oscar traditionally adores a mainstream bio-pic, don't be surprised if the Johnny Cash and June Carter romance "Walk the Line" winds up singing a happy tune.
"Munich" will likely be overlooked, because it tackles a no-win topic and refuses to take a stand or offer any resolutions, something Academy voters tend to dislike. Dense but tidy, "Crash" demonstrates the right way to tie together multiple story lines, a lesson the confusing yet lauded "Syriana" should have heeded.
And then there's Woody Allen, who will likely lob one right into the nomination court with "Match Point." Ditto reclusive filmmaker Terrence Malick, with his beautifully photographed, but frequently inert, take on the Pocahontas/John Smith story, "The New World."
And the nominations will be: "Brokeback Mountain," "Good Night, and Good Luck," "Crash," "Walk the Line," "The Constant Gardener."
Best Actor
Sure things: Hoffman in "Capote," Ledger in "Brokeback Mountain," David Strathairn in "Good Night."
Other contenders: Eric Bana in "Munich," Russell Crowe in "Cinderella Man," Jeff Daniels in "The Squid and the Whale," Terrence Howard in "Hustle & amp; Flow," Ralph Fiennes in "The Constant Gardener," Joaquin Phoenix in "Walk the Line."
Crystal-ball gazing: The nominating committee will likely continue to anoint actors for portraying American legends, from Phoenix as the fiery Cash in "Walk the Line" to Strathairn as the uncompromising journalist Edward R. Murrow in "Good Night, and Good Luck."
And the nominations will be: Hoffman, Howard, Ledger, Strathairn and Phoenix.
Best Actress
Sure things: Reese Witherspoon for "Walk the Line," Felicity Huffman for "Transamerica," Keira Knightley for "Pride & amp; Prejudice."
Other contenders: Joan Allen for "The Upside of Anger," Claire Danes for "Shopgirl," Judi Dench for "Mrs. Henderson Presents," Laura Linney for "The Squid and the Whale," Gwyneth Paltrow for "Proof," Charlize Theron for "North Country," Ziyi Zhang for "Memoirs of a Geisha."
And the nominations will be: Dench, Huffman, Knightley, Paltrow, Witherspoon.
Best Director
Sure things: Ang Lee for "Brokeback Mountain," Clooney for "Good Night, and Good Luck."
Other contenders: Allen for "Match Point," David Cronenberg for "A History of Violence," Paul Haggis for "Crash," Ron Howard for "Cinderella Man," Peter Jackson for "King Kong," Malick for "The New World," Fernando Meirelles for "The Constant Gardener," Bennett Miller for "Capote," Steven Spielberg for "Munich."
And the nominations will be: Allen, Clooney, Cronenberg, Malick, Spielberg.